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Author Topic: Fuel on the rise, and I need to plan for turbulence  (Read 891 times)

Offline Marksw76

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Fuel on the rise, and I need to plan for turbulence
« on: February 06, 2015, 08:34:02 PM »
Damn oil prices.

Anyways now is not the time for emotion, I need to start a plan, and start it fast.

My airline is cash rich and pax numbers are on the up. I own 90% of the fleet and the plan was to start a fleet replacement programme in the next year or so to replace the older 733s (swapping them to 734s making my whole fleet 734/752 only.

Now.... fuel is in the equation, I ran the 733s on a tight margin, so there was no room for error, ( I basically replaced my old 1-11s with em) so the routes they serve are average 80-100 pax so arguably the problem may be the 733 are too big. I've also ended up with a few imposters on my routes who smelt my gold and are helping themselves to it, using bloody cropdusters as far as I can see. Anyway many 733s are now in the red up to around 100k

The 752s on the other hand are as good as gold, despite being relatively thirsty PW2040s these are reliable old buses and are pulling things through the bad times....at the moment.

Here's my options, what do you chaps think:

1) Ditch the 733s for smaller Bombardier/Embraer type metal on regional routes. Of course theres the usual bollocks happening with waiting lists of years for the Embraers, so maybe I need to go with Bombardiers?? No experience in gliders so I'm open to suggestions on these babies. Maybe I should even meet the Fokkers? Although the F100 now looks a tad old hat and thirsty compared to the new gear on the market.

2) Ditch the 752s for 738/9s (or similar) incase of serious turbulence, keep the elderly 733s bearing in mind these are hitting 20+ years and are up for D checks in a couple of years.

3) Start a fuel contract - how the hell does this work??? Any help greatly appreciated

Anyway sports fans, your advice is greatly appreciated, I've had to say goodbye to the good people of Indonesia as i've axed all but one of my routes there as they were all in the red. There doesn't look like much future in the Phillippines at the moment either, these are turning a very small profit.

Over to you crazy cats...



Offline CarlBagot

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Re: Fuel on the rise, and I need to plan for turbulence
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2015, 09:08:46 PM »
How long are your routes on those 733s? If they are less than 800 NM you could get ATR 72's, Less than 1500 NM and you could go for Q400's, it is better to get high LF on your flights than low LF but covering the market while dealing with competition.

Alternatively there is the Sukhoi Superjet which is quite good but is cheap and available at the same time as the Emb E-jet line is free. The 717 is another option but is considerably more expensive.


752's depend on route types, are they 2000NM-3000NM? More than 3000nm? can you fill them decently or are they full?If bellow 2000NM and relatively full go for 739's/A321. If bellow 2000NM and 60-70%LF go for MD90-55/738/A320, the first option allowing you to have a 717/MD90 fleet. If above 2000NM and high LF, you start looking at 739ER/A321/753, keep in mind on really high capacity lines over long ranges in the latter stages of this game only the 753 or even a widebody such as the A300 or 787-3 wont suffer a penalty.

Offline Marksw76

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Re: Fuel on the rise, and I need to plan for turbulence
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2015, 09:44:56 PM »
Cheers for your input fella

Them there 752s operate around the 2800-3300nm area they are medium range vietnam to middle east.

I switched the higher demand 733s to 734s so the 733s are now the problem child operating regional/1000+nm only, demand varies from 130pax on a good day to around 80pax (with competition) on a bad day. I did it to keep the fleet type nice and tight and the option worked really well for a time. I even use one for an internal 71nm route!

717s were an option but dont seem to be able to compete with the newer Embraers on gas.

The options you gave on the 752s are interesting, I wouldn't say my routes are very high demand perhaps around the 150pax mark so I can adequately fill a 752 but would be rattling around in a widebody.

I got stung badly on A300s once on a short haul and got my ass kicked quite severely by 733s so I've always avoided ever since. I thought the MDs are a bit of a relic in this stage of the game...worth a look this one.

Offline schro

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Re: Fuel on the rise, and I need to plan for turbulence
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2015, 10:01:46 PM »
The 752s will be your friend for those lengths that you're flying them on. You will likely get plane is too small warnings with the 737ng or a320 family on 3000nm routes with  the 200 demand that you have today.

Regardless, have you raised prices lately?

Offline Marksw76

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Re: Fuel on the rise, and I need to plan for turbulence
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2015, 11:26:01 PM »
The 752s will be your friend for those lengths that you're flying them on. You will likely get plane is too small warnings with the 737ng or a320 family on 3000nm routes with  the 200 demand that you have today.

Regardless, have you raised prices lately?

Good point, no I've never raised my prices since 1981...

 

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