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Author Topic: Pax demand plummeting  (Read 1219 times)

Offline opalfruit

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Pax demand plummeting
« on: December 31, 2014, 09:48:10 AM »
Hi!

I'm seeing that since 4th September 2001 my pax demand at most every airport I serve has plummeted - in some cases more than halved.

I don't see a corresponding World announcement that corresponds to this. Is this some kind of semi-real simulation of the air industry's decline following 9/11?

If so, it's pretty aggressive!

Offline robsalmon

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2014, 10:00:22 AM »
Im the same .route oversupplys :o

Offline Kadachiman

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2014, 10:22:39 AM »
9/11 is modelled into the game...but no event notification

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2014, 11:11:30 AM »
As Kadachiman, but said otherwise : real world events are taken in account within the pax demand database. Only fictive events are given in the main news. I've never played this era, but I've been told the Russian lines to the far world experience a big change in 1990/1991. Without any warning(other than the creation of new countries).

Offline Marksw76

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2014, 02:19:46 PM »
Same here in Asia, lads. Those 734s are coming in half empty with route oversupplies now affecting 6+ routes and more to come I guess.

Timed nicely with D checks throughout the fleet dammit

Offline Maxair

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2014, 02:46:42 PM »
This is dumb! You cant have real world events affect a game with rules that dont apply in the real world. Forcing every player in this game world to block seats on ecery toute in their network completely makes no sense and is frustrating as heck. Takes all the fun out of the game now. You work hard to create a large route network and then have to go fiddle with a ridiculous seat blocking system to be within the rules even tho the cause of the decline happened outside the game itself. Im not complaining about the drop in demand and the huge losses that come with it. Just the massive amount of time its going to take to go through every toute and block the correct amount of seats. Its crazy. End rant

Offline Wreck

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2014, 03:46:19 PM »
Monumental waste of time. What a mess.
Don't have another 3 hours to go through all the flights again & not sure I got them all the first time, including several false ones.

I hope that in the aftermath of the real 9/11 the anti monopolies commission wasn't working overtime....


Online schro

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2014, 04:00:20 PM »
It doesn't make much sense to over supply things by that much in this game such that the 9/11 demand drop causes much butthurt, so, im not sure what the problem is.

Offline Wreck

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2014, 04:16:25 PM »
Routes in Africa have low demand, but can be profitable if running small planes while they grow - 9/11 caused drops of 30 to 40% on some routes.

About 60 anti monopoly warnings received, some which shouldn't have been there (maybe demand increased again afterwards) compounded by random correction notices.


Offline Sami

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2014, 05:02:20 PM »
The 911 effect in this particular game is actually LESS than standard (= drop is a bit smaller).. (this game has a slightly modified passenger demand levels set, and does not follow entirely the normal history which is the standard). Just FYI.

Offline Wreck

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2014, 05:23:46 PM »
The 911 effect in this particular game is actually LESS than standard (= drop is a bit smaller).. (this game has a slightly modified passenger demand levels set, and does not follow entirely the normal history which is the standard). Just FYI.

Don't have a problem with the drop in demand. The Anti Monopoly rubbish is insanity.

Offline Maxair

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2014, 09:30:20 PM »
It doesn't make much sense to over supply things by that much in this game such that the 9/11 demand drop causes much butthurt, so, im not sure what the problem is.
lol if u aim for 80% load factors and demand drops 50 to 60 percent and even more in some cases then what do u think is going to happen? Dumb comment

Offline Maxair

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2014, 09:33:39 PM »
The 911 effect in this particular game is actually LESS than standard (= drop is a bit smaller).. (this game has a slightly modified passenger demand levels set, and does not follow entirely the normal history which is the standard). Just FYI.
The drop in demand isnt the issue! Its the requirement to go through a large portion of your routes to block seats to suit your anti monopoly bureau! You have real world events affecting a game with non realistic rules

Offline robsalmon

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2014, 09:50:55 PM »
Drop in demand is a big factor too. Its taken me 18 game years to get to 60k passengers a month croatia doesnt have big demand routes now all of a sudden im down to 40k pas a month dats a big hit 33%.

Online schro

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2015, 01:52:56 AM »
lol if u aim for 80% load factors and demand drops 50 to 60 percent and even more in some cases then what do u think is going to happen? Dumb comment

First of all, I find it rather offensive that the best counter-point you offer to my statement is "dumb comment" as it makes you sound rather uneducated when it comes to the mechanics of the game. I would prefer that you counter with some solid rationale as to why this is an issue rather than simply name calling at my comment.

Secondly, your statement does not make sense as I do not understand how you are aiming for 80% load factors (i.e. through your pricing strategy, through your gluttonous oversupply strategy or other) nor do you correlate how that strategy is foiled by a "50 to 60 percent and even more" demand drop since such drops have never happened in AWS and probably never will (due to simple game playability reasons).

And now, for the dunk, looking across a non-statistically valid sample of large airlines across the world in GW4 including my own, I'm seeing about a 15-20% overall drop in passengers carried from the peak in mid-2001 to the trough that we just passed through in early October. For argument's sake, let's say there was a 20% demand drop and we have a route that started with 100 demand. During the 9/11 event, that means demand would drop to 80 passengers per day, which lowers the anti-monopoly crew's threshold from 200 seats supplied down to 160 seats supplied. Now, if I'm not mistaken, 160 seats supplied on a 100 demand route is not exactly the smartest thing to do once the game world has entered the Modern Times era, especially with the upcoming increases in fuel prices as it means you'll be more or less flying half-empty even if 9/11 didn't happen (which is only sustainable during the very early eras of game play). This brings me back to the point I was making - if you're flying 160 or more seats per day on a 100 (now 80) demand per day route, you're not making very good use of your airline's resources to start with, thus, with better route decisions up front, you would not have to go on a route edit-fest during a demand downturn.

Boomshakalaka! He's on fire!

PS - If you're in Asia, prepare for SARS in a couple years *cough cough*

PPS - Yes, that pun was intended.

2EG

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2015, 04:42:02 AM »

Offline Maxair

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2015, 02:43:49 PM »
First of all, I find it rather offensive that the best counter-point you offer to my statement is "dumb comment" as it makes you sound rather uneducated when it comes to the mechanics of the game. I would prefer that you counter with some solid rationale as to why this is an issue rather than simply name calling at my comment.

Secondly, your statement does not make sense as I do not understand how you are aiming for 80% load factors (i.e. through your pricing strategy, through your gluttonous oversupply strategy or other) nor do you correlate how that strategy is foiled by a "50 to 60 percent and even more" demand drop since such drops have never happened in AWS and probably never will (due to simple game playability reasons). Im sorry if i hurt your feelings! Everybody is so sensitive these days! Thank you for your long winded reply about your assumptions of how im running my airline. You appear to know it all and regardless of what else i write im sure you will have a rebuttal! You obviously have inside information about the passenger demands on every route in the game and i couldnt possibly see my numbers drop by half or more on certain routes!
Just for to give u an idea of where im coming from here is an example. I run a F100 with 104 seats on a route with a demand of 80 so if any world events pop up that will increase traffic slighty i can capitalize on it. Secondly as demand grows slowly load factors will gradually increase. Now lets say demand drops 25-35% that takes the number down to 50-60 range and now im right on the 200% supply threshold. Anti competition bureau then pops by on the one day of the week that im at 201% supply and i get a little message in my in box. ( dunk rejected by the rim )                 
And now, for the dunk, looking across a non-statistically valid sample of large airlines across the world in GW4 including my own, I'm seeing about a 15-20% overall drop in passengers carried from the peak in mid-2001 to the trough that we just passed through in early October. For argument's sake, let's say there was a 20% demand drop and we have a route that started with 100 demand. During the 9/11 event, that means demand would drop to 80 passengers per day, which lowers the anti-monopoly crew's threshold from 200 seats supplied down to 160 seats supplied. Now, if I'm not mistaken, 160 seats supplied on a 100 demand route is not exactly the smartest thing to do once the game world has entered the Modern Times era, especially with the upcoming increases in fuel prices as it means you'll be more or less flying half-empty even if 9/11 didn't happen (which is only sustainable during the very early eras of game play). This brings me back to the point I was making - if you're flying 160 or more seats per day on a 100 (now 80) demand per day route, you're not making very good use of your airline's resources to start with, thus, with better route decisions up front, you would not have to go on a route edit-fest during a demand downturn.

Boomshakalaka! He's on fire!

PS - If you're in Asia, prepare for SARS in a couple years *cough cough*

PPS - Yes, that pun was intended.

Offline Maxair

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #17 on: January 01, 2015, 02:48:35 PM »
Sigh* My longwinded rebuttal lost in space i see! I dont care enough to write another one. However i will say you get your feelings hurt too easily.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #18 on: January 01, 2015, 05:26:26 PM »
Schro.

You are the best player of GW3. You are present in 4 games simutaneously. Therefore, your opinion on gameplay is bound to be useful(and each word you write teaches me to be a better player).

But not everyone has enough time to play the game as much as you do - and as efficiently as you do. And the issue here is not about gameplay. It's about the game interface. A system to easily block seats for lines above capacity would be really welcome. That's all. Wether using it is the best strategy available is another debate.

Online schro

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Re: Pax demand plummeting
« Reply #19 on: January 01, 2015, 07:34:32 PM »
Im sorry if i hurt your feelings! Everybody is so sensitive these days! Thank you for your long winded reply about your assumptions of how im running my airline. You appear to know it all and regardless of what else i write im sure you will have a rebuttal! You obviously have inside information about the passenger demands on every route in the game and i couldnt possibly see my numbers drop by half or more on certain routes!
Just for to give u an idea of where im coming from here is an example. I run a F100 with 104 seats on a route with a demand of 80 so if any world events pop up that will increase traffic slighty i can capitalize on it. Secondly as demand grows slowly load factors will gradually increase. Now lets say demand drops 25-35% that takes the number down to 50-60 range and now im right on the 200% supply threshold. Anti competition bureau then pops by on the one day of the week that im at 201% supply and i get a little message in my in box. ( dunk rejected by the rim )                 

Looks like I can't buy a bucket ;-).

I appreciate you providing the additional info to back up your statements as it helps put it into perspective. In general, the only 25-35% demand drop that will trigger anti-monopoly warnings in all of AWS will be 9/11 (and MAYBE SARS in asia). Other than that, it is a use case that will never happen and really doesn't have to be worried about (Ok, so maybe being based in Baghdad at the start of the gulf war is a bad idea too). All of the other "random" events will also disable the anti-monopoly warning system until the event ends.

Schro.

You are the best player of GW3. You are present in 4 games simutaneously. Therefore, your opinion on gameplay is bound to be useful(and each word you write teaches me to be a better player).

But not everyone has enough time to play the game as much as you do - and as efficiently as you do. And the issue here is not about gameplay. It's about the game interface. A system to easily block seats for lines above capacity would be really welcome. That's all. Wether using it is the best strategy available is another debate.

I'm just an amateur player! Sheesh.

I agree with you that the game interface is a royal PITA when it comes to seat blocking. Just ask my buddy at LHR in GW4 who is flying 60 demand routes with 757s all day long (which why that isn't a slot hogging rule violation I don't know). It seems that the systemic solution to this particular issue would be to suspend the anti-monopoly crew during global demand downturns much like it is suspended during the dynamic events.

I wasn't initially trying to make the issue about game play, but rather planting the idea that the source of the problem _could_ be game play, just to have the suggestion insulted in a seemingly arbitrary manner. I have coached numerous players over the years and in just about every case, the problem has been with game play strategy rather than the butthurt caused by the poor user interface mechanics. Therefore, I figured it was a valid thing to mention in this context, and since it was zinged without much thought, I felt compelled to get out the soapbox, as one can never be wrong on the internet ;-).

 

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