I just scrapped the whole freakin route... it's not worth the headache. I guess i'm an idiot b/c it doesn't make sense to me. I had two a/c covering two different parts of the week on that route. No a/c flew in at the same time or out at the same time.
I can't find my last reply from one of these threds, where I said I should just cut & paste it for all future 'oversupply warning is wrong!' threads.
Almost every time there's one of these oversupply threads, the issue is the return flights, with flights being flown at different times of day.
To try and explain the way it works clearly:
Let's say the route has 70 pax, your plane has 100 seats.
Plane A departs your HQ on a Wednesday evening, lands after midnight, and so the return flight is on a Thursday. Tues, Fri, Sat, Sun also depart in the evening, so they return on Wed, Sat, Sun, Mon.
Plane B departs your HQ on a Thursday morning, lands before midnight, and so the return flight is also on a Thursday. Monday does the same, returns on Monday.
End result: outward bound leg shows 1 flight per day, -23-567 at 10pm, 1--4--- at 10am. That adds up to 100 seats/day for 70 demand, no problems.
But the return leg has 1-34-67 at 8am, 1--4--- at 8pm. That adds up to 200 seats on Monday, 200 seats on Thursday, and there are no flights on Tuesday or Friday. So you get an oversupply warning for Monday & Thursday.