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Author Topic: BIG jump in demand?  (Read 1069 times)

Offline knobbygb

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BIG jump in demand?
« on: April 26, 2014, 05:00:59 PM »
Is it my imagination or has the demand on all routes jumped by 40% or so in the last few days or weeks?  Seems a bit odd.

There's this item in the news feed:

General railway staff strike in United States

30-Aug-1998
The railway unions have announced a 45 day general staff in United States. It's expected many people are going to use cars and aircraft instead.

The timing seems right but... 40%??? And on international routes too? And there are few railways in the States.  Could this be a bug?

Weird.  I've never seen a jump this sudden before and I'm worried that if I schedule-up, it could drop off again soon. 

Any ideas?

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2014, 05:39:24 PM »
Yes.

Offline spiff23

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2014, 07:49:15 PM »
I had the same...was just about to ask.  Did you also have a huge plummet in on time?  I went from consistently top 50 to only 44%???   Too many inexperienced flyers clogging up the airports and my gates?   Although in all seriousness, that huge drop in on time is quite worrisome.   I didn't see any birds, car accidents of the variety of other things at my airports.

Offline spiff23

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2014, 08:12:03 PM »
To answer my own question, looks like all the big us airlines took an on time hit with the demand surge.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2014, 08:18:56 PM »
To lighten things a bit up: There is an assumption if surprisingly lots of people more than before storm to the airports and overbook flights, punctuality could suffer.

In some cases another change could have made this effect at positive events a bit too extreme.

SuriProf4

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2014, 10:07:39 PM »
would have been interesting to see the effect this world event would have had if it took place in europe.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2014, 10:11:09 PM »
Basically the same effect. A huge increase in demand (20-60%) and a medium increase in delay time.

SuriProf4

  • Former member
Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2014, 12:16:03 AM »
does it take into account the rail system is larger/more important for transportation than the u.s?

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2014, 12:25:18 AM »
No. The effects are the same for every country a event starts at.

Offline knobbygb

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2014, 03:47:40 AM »
So we're 100% sure this is because of the railway strike?  I guess we'll see in about 16 days when it ends....

Meanwhile demand has increased even further on many of my routes.  I have some that are more than double what they were before. ORD to SAN is one of the biggest I've spotted - up from about 900 pax per day to 2200 - a 130% rise.  And some of the long-haul routes are crazy too.  For example, ORD-CMB, a very marginal ULH route (with a tech-stop) is up from around 280 to nearly 600 pax per day! Looking at things generally, the demand jump seems to vary between about a 20% and 130%.

This makes the game more interesting I suppose but it's hardly even close to realistic.  If this were to happen for real I'd predict maybe a 10% rise in SOME domestic demand in the US and perhaps 30% to 40% max. on shorter domestic flights in places like Europe where people actually travel by train. Japanese domestic might see something like what is happening here as there is a HUGE domestic rail demand. There'd be no rise whatsoever on long haul unless, I suppose, a lot of people decided to get away from the chaos and take a holiday.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2014, 11:12:07 AM by [SC] knobbygb »

Offline Flash

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2014, 11:32:25 AM »
I agree to knobbygb. I operate out of Panama and I experienced also a huge rise in demand to all my US routes, Miami, Houston, JFK, New Ark, Atlanta...it's clearly due to the railway strike but this is not logical, because why would the demand for flights do Panama increase if the railway is on strike? This effect on international routes is clearly somewhat odd. Domestically, it would be understandable but not on an international or even intercontinental level.

Offline ekaneti

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2014, 10:19:41 PM »
Well the strike is over and my demand remains elevated.

Offline knobbygb

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2014, 03:50:49 AM »
Same here.  It's three weeks since the end of the strike too, so it doesn't look like it's even decreasing gradually.

So... what to do? I've not scheduled up and new aircraft for five weeks because it's difficult to see where they should go if things will suddenly change.  It'd be really good to get a comment from Sami as to if this is a bug that will be fixed or a one time permanent jump in demand.

Hehe, I know it seems odd to be moaning and complaining about a sudden doubling of demand but it means all the finely tuned long term planning of the last 45 years  is totally out of the window.  Literally ALL my routes need to be re-scheduled, I need to change the seating config of around 300 aircraft and most of my advance orders need to be cancelled and changed. It's almost like starting again from scratch really. Moan moan blah blah   :-[ ;D
« Last Edit: April 28, 2014, 04:17:31 AM by [SC] knobbygb »

Offline Silentlysailing

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2014, 05:44:13 AM »
Yeah, this stuff is wreaking havoc. Can't figure out if I need to expand or not(hence having to directly buy large aircraft) since load factors are way up still. Also the volcano is making it very tough because right after the high load factors decrease image so does the Volcano thing due to delays.

At the same time its nice for it to be reasonable to run some of the larger domestic aircraft.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2014, 05:56:49 AM by Silentlysailing »

Offline Sami

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2014, 11:39:57 AM »
I will most likely change the system so that any events are NOT included in the demand chart (only a note that 'event active, data unreliable currently' or something). Makes it much more simple technically and also avoids some server issues (since re-calculating the whole demand for entire continent is a bit harsh).

Someone also wondered somewhere why "US railway strike" event also affects intl routes. It's intentional as the system cannot know if the event affects domestics, intl or what types of routes.. And 'railway strike in Luxembourg' for example with only domestic routes (none) affected would be rather useless.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2014, 11:48:07 AM by sami »

Offline Flash

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2014, 12:34:33 PM »
Someone also wondered somewhere why "US railway strike" event also affects intl routes. It's intentional as the system cannot know if the event affects domestics, intl or what types of routes.. And 'railway strike in Luxembourg' for example with only domestic routes (none) affected would be rather useless.

It was me and I don't get the comment I guess. But either way, it's unrealistic because there is no reason why a railwaystrike in the States should affect demand on a route from - say - Chicago to Mexico City. But also others pointed that out.

zimmah

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2014, 08:13:38 PM »
I will most likely change the system so that any events are NOT included in the demand chart (only a note that 'event active, data unreliable currently' or something). Makes it much more simple technically and also avoids some server issues (since re-calculating the whole demand for entire continent is a bit harsh).

Someone also wondered somewhere why "US railway strike" event also affects intl routes. It's intentional as the system cannot know if the event affects domestics, intl or what types of routes.. And 'railway strike in Luxembourg' for example with only domestic routes (none) affected would be rather useless.

well you can make the events distinquish between europe, asia and europe right? that'd be a good start. A railway strike in either of these continents would affect the demand for flying inside that region, but do very little to international/intercontinental demand.

Also, if it's not too hard to add, maybe add a different color demand bar during events. Kind of like when you have aircraft that are planned on a route but not yet delivered have a yellow color instead of the normal blue.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: BIG jump in demand?
« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2014, 08:27:09 PM »
At the moment the events can't be distinquished.

 

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