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Author Topic: Weather Conditions  (Read 719 times)

Offline Jackson

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Weather Conditions
« on: December 08, 2013, 11:38:48 PM »
Is there something weather wise thats going on in and around Arabia.?

Im spending $1.1M on marketing.  $700000 on world marketing and $300000. All my flights consists of A300s and 310s with 1% chance of delay. 1% chance of delay. ONE PERCENT. Yet my flights always experience delays.

1989 flight cancellation was at 0.9% to 1.3% tops. Now all of a sudden at the end of 89 till todays date, its at 5.3?%. What is going on?

Granted, the most common reason IS weather conditions but why is it so extreme and when will it end?


Offline Jackson

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2013, 11:41:17 PM »
Oh and in regards to my 1.1m dollar marketing campaign, I have just dropped down to 55.5%CI. Late 88 early 1989 it was at 68%. Its still dropping.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2013, 12:30:27 AM »
There are easy winters as there are extreme ones, they happen randomly.If your marketing is just enough to keep a CI level under best conditions, it will seriously drop as long as bad conditions maintain, only way is to raise marketing to buffer effects.

ucfknightryan

  • Former member
Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2013, 01:16:06 AM »
Oh and in regards to my 1.1m dollar marketing campaign, I have just dropped down to 55.5%CI. Late 88 early 1989 it was at 68%. Its still dropping.

That sounds far more serious than I have ever seen from weather based delays, I'd check very thoroughly for something else being wrong.

Offline Jackson

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2013, 10:33:23 PM »
NOW THATS SIMULATION. Ok. I'll keep what you guess said In mind for the future. Nice one guys.

Offline Cardinal

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2013, 12:37:33 AM »
All my flights consists of A300s and 310s with 1% chance of delay. 1% chance of delay. ONE PERCENT. Yet my flights always experience delays.

That 1% refers ONLY to delays in turning around the aircraft (i.e. boarding, catering, fueling, baggage handling). It does not take into account weather or maintenance or ATC delays, which are randomized separately.

Offline Jackson

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2013, 07:43:43 PM »
That 1% refers ONLY to delays in turning around the aircraft (i.e. boarding, catering, fueling, baggage handling). It does not take into account weather or maintenance or ATC delays, which are randomized separately.

Oh. I thought it would help in regards to weather and other factors. Okay. So no matter if one were to put and extra hour on an ATR schedule, super extreme random weather would still cause a delay? Harsh but okay. I thought it may have had something to do with the Gulf War or something seeing as I'm based in Arabia.

Anyways.What I don't get is why my CI was on the incline when I had one general marketing campaign costing Ģ700k worldwide prior to summer of 1989, after a slight 3%hit in the autumn, I added a Continental campaign and despite adding an extra $300k, it dropped from 67% to a current 53% in winter within 2 months? And now Im stuck there. I have less than 15 a/c, one fleet type with the 1st ATR arriving in 2 weeks, all flights with 1% turnaround and all a/c are regularly maintained.

Price is on default also. There is no reason I shouldn't have my airline's CI rise again is there? Or is it down to my competition and influence by company LF? I think it may be the lf because aroung autumn I added 5 more A300s to the existing fleet. Their lf ranges from 55-80%.

I really don't want to spend more. Profit at best last year was $3.4m just after all newly leased aircraft were added.  Yet, despite after adding 300k CI dropped by over 10% and LF stays the same with no prospect of rising. Even if the route has no competition.  Very strange. Im not really a moaner. Just wondering if anyone else has experienced aomething similar.


Offline Cardinal

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2013, 08:00:51 PM »
Did you have route marketing campaigns? If so, those also inflated your CI slightly (although not by that much).

Even though you have no control over the weather, the pax blame you for it so weather cancellations/delays do cause your CI to take a hit.

Check also the morale of your Marketing Department. If they're not motivated, they might be spending that marketing budget on something else.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2013, 09:28:28 PM »
CI is not influenced by LFs, itīs the other way around. Just talking of LF bares no information for others, only percentage of transportated demand with or without competition. PAX decide to take your offer according CI,RI,fare and other factors weighing it against competition offer. If overall demand isnīt big enough to fill your aircraft in the first place, you just can do anything and wonīt fill it.....bad weather influences your CI ; as long delays continue, it will drop further, and only thing you can do is more marketing to buffer effects.Then again, pure numbers tell us nothing, marketing effects rely on the percentage of income you use for it, for whatever kind of marketing (campaign descriptions are purely cosmetic.)
If weather comes back to normal, your CI will climb again with every week without much delay anyway, be patient, there will be a spring every year !

Offline Jackson

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2013, 12:27:22 AM »
Okay. For now, im down to 50%. 97% punctuality and 2.1% cancellation as I type. Will keep update I  a few RL days.
I will spend more. I did briefly add 3 rought campaigns but after I saw no change I immediately removed them and that was just before I added the $300k additional general campaign.

Something just isn't right. Will continue to monitor.

Thanks guys.

I

Offline Cardinal

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2013, 01:30:29 AM »
You didn't mention staffing so I'm assuming you haven't fired anyone, but I'm bringing it up because it can cause a sharp drop in CI. Just one more thing to think about.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2013, 01:38:19 AM »
It takes a little time before marketing effect kicks in so a short continuing drop may be possible. Cancellation of marketing actions causes drops, too, even if you immediately start another one. CI should improve slowly now.

Offline knobbygb

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2013, 04:27:09 AM »
You didn't mention staffing so I'm assuming you haven't fired anyone, but I'm bringing it up because it can cause a sharp drop in CI. Just one more thing to think about.

I don't know if it's just my imagination, but this factor also seems to have got more "keen" recently, so beware when firing staff (probably off-topic I know).

In JA I fired a small number of staff (maybe 0.2% of my total workforce) and I immediately had a CI drop for 90% to 87% - fair enough. But... then it snowballed.  The lack of morale caused HUGE delays which caused pax numbers to drop sharply and the CI to drop further.  From what was originally a very small cut in staff (which I've done many times before) my CI eventually dropped to around 50% over the next six months, before slowly starting to recover.  The recovery back to 90% took around 2 years  :o  That was with the benefit of extra marketing AND pay rises to improve morale.  I reckon it cost the airline over $200M in total - many times more than I saved in salary from the fired staff.


Offline Jackson

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Re: Weather Conditions
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2013, 02:38:22 AM »
You didn't mention staffing so I'm assuming you haven't fired anyone, but I'm bringing it up because it can cause a sharp drop in CI. Just one more thing to think about.

Tell me about it. Last year I got over comfident (I'm a natural risk taker) and raised staff wages and manually hired staff to 102% for most departments because I felt lile being generous lol but really to try and see if it would have increased their work rate and improve the airline's efficiency. BIG MISTAKE. When fuel rose, prices had to come down so after bringing all wages back to default, moral dropped big time.

Anyway. The CI has gotten alot better over the last month and a half (70% with steep incline so I predict it will even out at 80).

I added maxed out route marketing to 3 challenging route pairs each. Marketing cost has increased however so that $700000 worldwide campaign is now about $1.3m and the $300k took its place  :'(

So. Where do I stand right now? Well. I am still making a profit I am satisfied with. As long as I can pay for my brand new ATRs with enough to purchase one more fleet type before the 90s end, Im all good.

But maaan. That was a big scare. This hopefully will be my first 100+ owned 5 fleet big airline. Im sure I will have another scare again so when that happens, I'll be running straight back to you guys for help lol.

 

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