AirwaySim
Online Airline Management Simulation
Login
Username
Password
 
or login using:
 
My Account
Username:
E-mail:
Edit account
» Achievements
» Logout
Game Credits
Credit balance: 0 Cr
Buy credits
» Credit history
» Credits FAQ

Author Topic: route marketshare  (Read 889 times)

Offline travelair

  • Members
  • Posts: 410
route marketshare
« on: October 26, 2013, 08:31:13 AM »
 OK, one last try at understandnig how this game hase "changed", then it really is "game over" for me, I'm sure some will rejoyce...

So oct.20 comes this newbwie to DFW. He then proceedes to lease 20y. old 732's and puts them on well established routes, all fine and well. There are a number of examples, but take this one:
http://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/KDFW/KOKC/?go=1

This route has been established sometime in mid.nov. so thats 2 month. His RI must be s***, as we all know how slow it rises, especially after the RI "adjustments". Yet after these 2 1/2 months, he already has 25% MS. I have lowered prices by 15%, to no effect, it keeps growing. Whats going on?
Where is the supposed price tool we were talking about earlier?  ??? And how are you supposed to defend your long established markets against the reaccuring attacks by killer-732's-bees?  ::)

RI of 25% maybe.
He has no money for route advertising.
Prices cut by 15%
MS of 25% and rising.
When I opened up BOS-LTN market, want to hear my LFs (RI: Y: 29.5%   C: 22.9%   F: 33.3%
These 732's are 20y. old.
His brand is 11% mine in 90%

Are these numbers just irrelavant crap, or do they actually play any role in aws as they used to?

The route is perfect to be served by a number of props, its 152nm. Or are you expected to serve this market with 2 734's and be done with it? Have these planes been "adjusted" in some way as have nb across longer distances? Anyone have any insight at hand.

I know. "read the threads", but I will not fish trough the years old update and changes to the game threads, if someone can share a quick answer...




« Last Edit: October 26, 2013, 10:22:08 AM by travelair »

Offline JumboShrimp

  • Members
  • Posts: 5997
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2013, 09:09:54 AM »
Just a few things off the top of my head:

You have 2 of the 6 flights in less than ideal times.  That's not helping you.  Then, the system has some penalty for too many flights - but that should not apply to you.  There is a tiny advantage for him for faster speed and jet vs. turbo prop...

The bottom line is, he has 2 out of 8 flights (or 25%) and he gets 25% of the pax.

But, his aircraft is twice as big as yours, so his LF is half of yours.  So it may not be too profitable for him to fly that route...

brique

  • Former member
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2013, 09:31:45 AM »
Should add : an RI of zero still gives you a level of customer who 'know' you : I recall it being around the 20% mark : so, from day one, there is a pool of pax who may fly with you : the higher the ratio between demand and seats offered means that the default 20% could theoretically give you a full plane. An RI of 25 would be about 40% recognition, so, your competitor has something to work with if the rest of their offer matches or beats yours.

You say you cut your prices, but we dont know what your competitors pricing strategy is, so you cant say the pricing changes are not working, they may well be, just not in your favour if they are pricing below you sufficient to overcome any disadvantage from older aircraft and poorer CI/RI.

We know each component of the 'offer' has an effect : Sami has not revealed exactly how much effect each gives, just that they do. My experience is that pricing is a 'big' mover in pax decisions, but tis not the sole mover.

the other thing to bear in mind is that, to my observation, even the 'killer' offer which beats your competitor hands-down on every factor will still not zero their loads in your favour : some pax will still choose to fly with them, maybe its a random 'idiot' factor who jump on the first plane regardless of comfort, cost or time.

You say the competitor has no money, cant be making much and has planes 4-5 yrs away from being grounded as too old : there's the rub, they may make a little now, but they will not last against a well-established airline but more likely they are burning through their start-up cash and heading into the red.

finally, you can't just 'bomb' a competitor out of the airport anymore : its a longer process but the better airline will always win in the end. Irritating, maybe, but if we want the chance of competition, then the door has to be open to it to some degree, you got a noob walk through yours, be grateful it wasnt a pro.

Offline travelair

  • Members
  • Posts: 410
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2013, 11:04:26 AM »
I might want to add that the numbers Im getting on LTN route is with a RI of 32, 15% off prices...

Ok, its 10/15 min difference in time it takes an ATR vs. a 737 on the route, if that is taken into account. No more nb on long haul, if someone decides to put a 20y old A300 next to your factory new, no more props even on ultra short haul, if a jet is 10min faster.
I feel these so-called fixes are just limiting the freedom you once had in this game, plus they in no way reflects reality. Oh I forgot, AWS is not supposed to do that in the first place  ::)

If I open up a base somewhere and stick my ancient planes on some really well estblished routes, I should not be getting 25 MS after 2 months... giving new arrivals a chance is all well and good, but not at airports and routes which have 0 room for additonal capacity. Why dont try it at an ap and on routes that have less comp.?

He isnt making a lot of money, but since DFW still has some free cap. on many routes he can compesate for loosing money on his regional non-sense pretty well. HorizonBlack cant put his 1000 737's everywhere yet, you know... ;)

Finally, Im not "bombing" out no body... I have established the route for the max cap. it currently supports. You think you do that in 2 days? Why should you be penalized you doing that? If anyone, he is bombing the route with his 737's. Pls check some of his other route, where the cap. of the jet is too big.

In the end, I will surrender to the fact that AWS has changed into a direction that no everyone will call progress. I quit like 18 month or more, returned with a lot of hope. Since that some minor changes to the layout, mayor changes to viability of certain aircraft types...
Dont get my wrong, I still believe AWS is a "great waste of time", but there is so muuch more potential not being adressed. Maybe Sami should take a few thousand $ and get some help, than just charge a little more to play AWS, Im sure the players wouldnt mind...

I might come back again in 2 years and see if anything has changed for the better, most my former friends in WorldLink are not here anymore... there is probably are reason for that...

I wish everyone a lot of fun, and Im sure you will find someone else to go one your "nerves"... :laugh: Anyone want my s***y ATR's?...

cye, travelair



« Last Edit: October 26, 2013, 11:16:44 AM by travelair »

Online Sami

  • Administrator
  • Members
  • Posts: 14544
    • AirwaySim - Are you the next Richard Branson?
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2013, 11:18:22 AM »
Your avg sales on this route, if the one useless night flight is excluded, is about 40-50 seats per flight (lf from about 80 to 100%), and you got 5 flights plus the one night flight so total sales are about 220-270 seats.. You got some flights flying full so prices are obviously too low on those flights (price reductions made no difference there since there is nothing more to sell...) while some have very low LF due to the extremely poor schedules (02-03 etc).

The other guy has two flights on ok schedules (0500 dep is tad too early) and he has around 40% LF giving him daily sales of about 100-120 per day. And also he does have plenty of money for marketing and stuff, don't know where you are getting that..... (And also one important thing to note - load factor is not an useful tool for comparing anything really, we must look at the number of seats sold)

The question is mainly that why are you flying a <150nm route twice in the middle of the night? Try moving those two flights to daytime and you will see a difference, also tweak prices and aim for LF of about 80% which usually gives best sales/profit ratio (roughly said). Since after all ONLY what I would care as a manager is to maximize my profits, not my marketshare... And also why it would have to be impossible for a new airline to start up, as that is clearly what you are saying here basically, if we'd make it harder to catch new passengers?

Anyway, cannot really see anything wrong here, and I am kind of missing the actual point of the first post too - what is the problem other than "he is stealing my pax!?!?!", which he actually may not be doing since you had those few flights with less than optimal schedules etc, so you are not catching all demand in any case, and most of his inital growth has come from these passengers you are not catching...

It's always easy to judge when all details are not known or understood.


edit: and what comes to your last post, really cannot believe that you seem to think that just "filling the demand" would be some kind of excuse to think that no othet airline would enter or "be allowed" to enter on that route? (Quotes since you did not really say that, but I can see that that is what you ultimately meant?).. Oh noes.. As I pointed out, in reality there is unfilled demand on this route - though the demand chart does not really show that. And new airlines have to enter routes that have competition, and at least I would search routes with demand vs capacity near or less than max, but would stay out of routes that are heavily over-served.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2013, 11:31:36 AM by sami »

Offline travelair

  • Members
  • Posts: 410
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2013, 01:36:35 PM »
Where does DFW-OKC have any demand left`??? Please check before telling me I dont understand the details  :-[ He just put seats the route, eventhough it was at max cap. Again, Im not saying there should be no competition, but this is a bit crazy...
If load factor is not a tool to compare, why have it in the game at all? Its poinless. How can I compare seats sold?

But, still I have reduced price on OKC by 20% now, with no effect. His market share keeps climing, its close to 30% now, when I started this thread it was 25%. It sure is very effective to reduce price ::) You say tweak the price. Since you can see everything, and Im open about what Im doing on that route, you going to tell me if he has reduced his price by 20% too?

Night flights: strangely enough ppl dont mind boarding this, it departs at 4:45 with a avg. load of 70%, im fine with that. Im also fine with a load of 30% since the outbout flight leave at a good time, besides its my choice, to keep the planes flying or to keep them on the ground, no?

TRV 4112  DFW - MAF    00:05 - 01:35  pax: 73,9
TRV 4113  MAF - DFW    02:35 - 04:05  pax: 26,9

( I have many other examples)

I have a feeling, all the arguments are invalid, or could any of you take a sec and address any of them, without going into too much detail:
price of ticket
frequency (this used to play a mayor part, pax prefer to have more than 1-2 connections a day, whatever happened to this)
age of aircraft used
route image
company image

has all this changed to "balance" the game out?  ???

Online Sami

  • Administrator
  • Members
  • Posts: 14544
    • AirwaySim - Are you the next Richard Branson?
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2013, 02:08:21 PM »
Oh dear, talking about missing my point:

- yes, you are supplying roughly the amount of seats what the demand on that route is. But what I tried to say is that two of your flights are such that they will NEVER be full as they are in the middle of the night. So practically speaking you are NOT filling all the available demand on that route, and that is partly why he has gotten relatively good sales with low RI right from the start.

- The other airline is fully allowed and even encouraged to fly on routes with existing competition on it. You having "maxed out" the route is no reason for any further discussion.

- Load factor cannot be used to compare two airlines' sales/profits at all really, but for internal use it is a quick way to determine the effectiveness of the service and pricing

- you have unnecessarily lowered your prices on some routes, like I tried to explain. If you already have 100% LF why do you sell the tickets at discount since there is nothing more to sell since the plane is full.

- Market share alone is not by any means an useful metric to compare airlines on the route, as you can see from this. You'd need to look on YOUR route performance - instead of focusing what he might sell or not why you are not at all worried what YOU are selling and what profits you are getting. So totally wrong approach in my mind (if one would be interested in running his airline and not trying just to run down the competition that is). In other words his market share may have risen to 30% but has it really hurted your sales of the 30% (ie. 30% less sales) - and I can answer directly; it has not.


And like I already said, try simply moving the flights between 00-05 to daytime (or do an overnighter; leaves base in evening so arrival is no later than 0030, long turnaround and leaves the other airport at 0530 in morning), and put peak hour flight prices to standard or higher and see what happens (or adjust to gain about 80-85% LF) .. Of course take note of the profits before and after the changes.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2013, 02:22:53 PM by sami »

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2013, 05:01:46 PM »
Its just great entertainment ! I will miss it.

Offline SAC

  • Members
  • Posts: 4212
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2013, 05:38:15 PM »
Travelair - You have just 132 a/c yet have just opened base number 3 !  

With a HQ these in DFW there is no need for even base number 2 for some considerable time, but base 3 is just plain crazy.  

I'll share what I consider an important rule...fly EVERY route economically viably possible to fly at your HQ BEFORE considering your next base. You have not even done this at DFW, or BOS...not by million miles.  When you open base 2 don't consider base 3 until you have as close to 100 a/c flying as possible, and then the same before opening base 4.

I would have close to 300 a/c at DFW, and 100 a/c at BOS, before even thinking about base 3 !

Your setting yourself up for a big fall  ::)

 
« Last Edit: October 26, 2013, 05:40:31 PM by Wile E Coyote »
...it's not over until I say it's over

Offline Captim

  • Members
  • Posts: 1325
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2013, 05:40:42 PM »
What have you just done

 :o

Please don't blame the game for the consequences

Offline travelair

  • Members
  • Posts: 410
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2013, 07:45:14 PM »
The thread here is not ment to be entertaining, the others are. For you maybe, since you have sort of a cranky sence of humor, exch.

If I fail, then at least misserably. We will have a last fly-by over Dallas in our A380, roll down the windows, wave DarkHorizon good-bye. He then can have DFW all to himself :laugh: But it will because of a different reason, Im investing way to much time here, I am a designer in real life... you know, Vileair, err I mean of course Villair?

Im guessing your all happy when Im gone anyway  :-[



« Last Edit: October 26, 2013, 07:48:00 PM by travelair »

brique

  • Former member
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2013, 08:01:21 PM »
The thread here is not ment to be entertaining, the others are. For you maybe, since you have sort of a cranky sence of humor, exch.

If I fail, then at least misserably. We will have a last fly-by over Dallas in our A380, roll down the windows, wave DarkHorizon good-bye. He then can have DFW all to himself :laugh: But it will because of a different reason, Im investing way to much time here, I am a designer in real life... you know, Vileair, err I mean of course Villair?

Im guessing your all happy when Im gone anyway  :-[



No, though that thought may satisfy some inner sense of having been hard done by for you, I doubt anyone will be happy : You just didn't realise how much this game had moved on in the 18 months you had been away and, for whatever reason, that seemed to spook you enormously. Then you seemed to become irritated that nobody could simply and easily explain the changes in a few posts : not possible, there is a whole thread or two covering those changes, of which there have been many, some stand-alone, others interlinked in quite complex ways : without taking the time to go look in those threads and gain some understanding of the what, when and why of it, you were never going get the simple answers you craved : there aren't any simple answers, being the main reason.

Anyway, good luck in your endeavours, here or elsewhere, and take care and try to remember, its a game and games are supposed to be enjoyed, not suffered.

brique.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2013, 08:08:49 PM »
Then you are serious about this thread ? Youre a natural talent and dont know it. Which tells something about your sense of humor.
Sorry, but I tend to laugh when Im good and ready and not, when your sweet smileys indicate it.
And if you will return, dont wait for two years. This game changes so fast, that just one year of development will give you new material for entertaining complaints, insults ,better-knowing solutions and big-mouthed press releases already. Winke-winke !
« Last Edit: October 26, 2013, 08:11:00 PM by exchlbg »

Offline SAC

  • Members
  • Posts: 4212
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2013, 08:34:18 PM »
By his constant childish digs and snipes at others then AWS doesn't seem the right place for him. AWS is not a game where you can have your own way, you have to tolerate/accept competition, and do the best you can in the face of stiff competition and people taking your market share. Seems to me that is the bit Travelair can't tolerate, problem is that's what AWS is all about !
...it's not over until I say it's over

Offline travelair

  • Members
  • Posts: 410
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2013, 09:11:12 PM »
Where is this big-mouthed? The only one doing that is you  ::)

"The BOD of Travelair has given the green light to add A380's to the fleet today."
"We are delighted to be the launch customer for that big bird" the CEO commented. He continued: "we have many routes in our system, where we can efficiently schedule the plane.

This game is for adults? Im sniping at two of my competitors, its ment to be fun, its using the english lang. you know? Even they seem to get the irony in my statements, either grow up or get a sence of humor, who ever you are...
"Seems to me that is the bit Travelair can't tolerate, problem is that's what AWS is all about !" This really is the only thing useful that you contributed to this discussion... Im faced with problems in my professional life ever day, I can tolerate them very well, thank you.

This crap is really getting to me, if I have the energy I will post some more interesting facts about the LF issue, but not now

Offline connorc17

  • Members
  • Posts: 273
Re: route marketshare
« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2013, 03:56:21 AM »
How WorldLink still has you as a manager is beyond me... my oh my  ???

 

WARNING! This website is not compatible with the old version of Internet Explorer you are using.

If you are using the latest version please turn OFF the compatibility mode.