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Author Topic: Uneven LH demand?  (Read 822 times)

Offline xyeahtony

  • Members
  • Posts: 684
Uneven LH demand?
« on: October 15, 2013, 03:15:31 AM »
So today i noticed that the demand on SFO-SYD is half the demand of SYD-SFO




Specifically while my LFs are about 60% on the SYD-SFO route, they are in the 20-25% range for the SFO-SYD route, and i noticed there is basically half the demand in premium pax on the SFO-SYD route.

Is this even normal, or some kind of LH demand glitch?



ucfknightryan

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2013, 03:27:36 AM »
There are a number of these odd glitchy routes around the world and have been for as long as I can remember. 

brique

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2013, 03:47:08 AM »
i think its due to how traffic gets divided up at each airport : into domestic, regional, LH ; then also by Y/F/C : so the %'s of each dont always match up both ends of a route : there were some C/F demands reported a bit back that had no demand at all on the return legs : not sure how it could be fixed under the current system as its not calculated for any one route in particular, just an overall set of demand from that airport : but even under dynamic demand model, then its going to be possible an airport attracts a lot of one kind of demand but not necessarily so at the other airport on the route.

ucfknightryan

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2013, 03:58:28 AM »
i think its due to how traffic gets divided up at each airport : into domestic, regional, LH ; then also by Y/F/C : so the %'s of each dont always match up both ends of a route : there were some C/F demands reported a bit back that had no demand at all on the return legs : not sure how it could be fixed under the current system as its not calculated for any one route in particular, just an overall set of demand from that airport : but even under dynamic demand model, then its going to be possible an airport attracts a lot of one kind of demand but not necessarily so at the other airport on the route.

This makes no sense, there are not ~100 people immigrating from Aus. to US every day by way of SFO.  The two directions on a route should roughly match as the passengers have to go back home somehow, and I doubt they're all going by boat.  I fully understand why it's probably not worth sami's time fixing seeing as how he's working on a replacement for the demand system, but these results makes no sense under either system.

Offline xyeahtony

  • Members
  • Posts: 684
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2013, 04:36:42 AM »
This makes no sense, there are not ~100 people immigrating from Aus. to US every day by way of SFO.  The two directions on a route should roughly match as the passengers have to go back home somehow, and I doubt they're all going by boat.  I fully understand why it's probably not worth sami's time fixing seeing as how he's working on a replacement for the demand system, but these results makes no sense under either system.

agreed. Reminds me of the HND-NRT Intl demand glitch.

rubiohiguey

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2013, 12:24:08 PM »
Maybe 25% of Aussies like to visit Hollywood and prefer then taking a direct flight back home from LAX :)

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2013, 04:44:55 PM »
These glitches are there for years and nothing new, there are warnings of checking all routes both ways before opening service. Itīs also known that demand numbers are produced after a pretty fixed formula and are not controlled for "logic", as this is practically unpossible. I donīt know what formula is planned to be used in city-based demand, but if system is not radically changed those "problems" will stay, especially if size and "characteristics" of two airports differ a lot.

ucfknightryan

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2013, 07:33:41 PM »
These glitches are there for years and nothing new, there are warnings of checking all routes both ways before opening service. Itīs also known that demand numbers are produced after a pretty fixed formula and are not controlled for "logic", as this is practically unpossible. I donīt know what formula is planned to be used in city-based demand, but if system is not radically changed those "problems" will stay, especially if size and "characteristics" of two airports differ a lot.

That makes no sense exchlbg, demand is a function of the sizes of the two airports.  It should not differ based on direction as everyone (generally) that flies somewhere needs to come home eventually.  Having different demand values depending on direction in a route pair is actually requiring 2x the work as them being symmetric, as it would require running a formula for the route in each direction so it makes no sense from a computation resources perspective either.  It imo is almost certainly the result of some sort of glitch or bug in said fixed formula but as I said in my last post, probably not worth sami's time to troubleshoot as he's planning on replacing that whole part of the game in the (hopefully not too distant) future.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2013, 11:24:04 PM »
But size it not the only part of the formula, itīs also the distribution of airport traffic into Y/C/F and probably SH,MH,LH that produces different sums in any direction.Apparently there is no function of the formula that compares route pairs and evens them out afterwards.

ucfknightryan

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2013, 03:10:56 AM »
But size it not the only part of the formula, itīs also the distribution of airport traffic into Y/C/F and probably SH,MH,LH that produces different sums in any direction.Apparently there is no function of the formula that compares route pairs and evens them out afterwards.

And you know the contents of this formula how?  ::)  If this was actually the case you would expect variations in the % breakdown between Y/C/F in each direction on all routes, spot checking routes shows Y/C/F percentages of total traffic at identical levels in both directions except on routes like this where the passenger numbers are out of balance.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Uneven LH demand?
« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2013, 09:50:08 AM »
I donīt know the formula exactly, of course, but it was discussed many times before and general mechanics not denied by Sami.
YCF does play a role because there are cases where C/F demand exists in one direction only. Then your differences are caused by very different LH/MH/SH mix percentages at both airports.
Anyway, there are many cases like that already observed and reported and correction always denied unless difference would be like 1000 to O.
Letīs see if city based demand works different.

 

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