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Author Topic: I find the demand totally unrealistic  (Read 932 times)

rubiohiguey

  • Former member
I find the demand totally unrealistic
« on: October 04, 2013, 03:27:03 PM »
I came here from Airline Empires because the demand pattern was totally unrealistic there. There was so much more demand, maybe 10x more than in real life in very prosperous world. Like loading a full A320 form Wichita, Kansas, to Brirmingham, Alabama.

But I find the demand  in AWS totally unrealistic too. In a 180 opposite direction. In the past 24 hours I have been investigating demand patterns form some major airports.

First of all, how come that Mexico City, where I am based, is having slots double or triple the rate of other comparable major airports, yet maybe 1/3 of demand? How can it be possible that YYZ to EZE, for example, has 5x more demand than MEX EZE, where in real life opposite is true? How can it be that YYZ - EZE has more demand than MIA- EZE?  How can it be that YYZ to LHR has only 20% less demand than JFK to LHR, whereby in real world everybody knows that JFK to LHR is one of the most traveled routes in the world?

Or another example, PTY to MAD has more demand than MEX to MAD. Even San Jose Costa Rica has more demand to MAD than MEX to MA! Which is totally ridiculous. PTY to CDG has comparable demand than MEX to CDG, and in real life nobody dared to open up a direct flight between PTY and CDG!

I find the overall demand pattern from some airports way over normal, and demand pattern from my base airport MEX, way below normal.

In general, after doing the investigation about various routes yesterday and today, I find the demand pattern in AWS totally unrealistic, and this is making me disillusioned of AWS.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2013, 03:45:36 PM by rubiohiguey »

brique

  • Former member
Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2013, 03:36:40 PM »
deja vu, all over again....

Okay, then how would you determine the 'realistic' demand from airport A to airport B on any given date between 1950 and 2020, then do it for all the airports in the game, to all the other airports in the game, again on any given date in that 70 year period : include economic factors such as recessions (which may be localised or global), oil crisis events, wars, emergencies, other political factors, weather events, such as hurricanes, typhoons; geo-physical events such as earthquakes, tsunami's, volcanos, etc.

now, do all that without employing a cray supercomputer running all week for each database query when you want to open a new route planning page....

to sum up, I find your demand totally unrealistic...

Offline schro

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Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2013, 03:56:52 PM »
I think a few of the points that myself and others made in your other threads haven't set in, but there's also something else in play.  In the start of a game world, demand is artificiallyreduced on both a global level AND on a specific route level (i.e. LHR-JFK being one of them) in order to make it more difficult to grow into a mega airline in the first few years of game play. You will see demand pick up over the course of the next game year to about what is normal for each game world. The same is also true of slots - they start artificially low and increase over the course of time. ATL, for example, is in the upper 30's per hour, but should be well over 100 by the time the game concludes.

To restate how most of the demand calculations work on a very basic level around here, there's a few bits of information to consider. First of all, each airport has data about its passenger volumes at a given point in time and it also has a distribution of passenger types (domestic, international, long haul international) that typically traverse through the airport. The passenger volumes get indexed against 1. A global economic index 2. A country specific economic index, 3. the impact of specific events like 9/11, 4. the starting demand nerf to balance out game world starts and 5. country relationship data (i.e. good luck finding demand from the US to Cuba). All of those factors (and plenty of others) go into a formula of sorts that ultimatly produces the demand charts that you see. The point is that it is a simulation that happens to be based upon some data from real life, but not everything can be perfectly simulated. The impact of seasonality is also muted a bit as it is not a fun game play mechanism for the speed of game worlds here - it wouldn't be manageable to have demand jump 3x every summer and drop for the rest of the seasons for tourist destinations.

You also should consider that what you "observe" on a route today may or may not be 100% O/D passengers. Can you say that the actual number origin/destination of people flying between YYZ and EZE versus MEX and EZE is 5x whatever you see in the game? I'd think that you couldn't as you would need to account for connecting passengers on both ends, so you really can't state with any authority how many people traverse that route on a daily basis.

Overall, I think your expectation of finding a business simulation game that perfectly replicates what you observe in real life will be a disillusioned quest, as if such a business simulation game exists, it will not be very much fun to play. I would suggest pulling back from your expectation of matching reality and explore the simulated world that the game has built and judge it on those merits rather than how well it can offer an opinion on passenger demand that is consistent with yours.

Offline Sami

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Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2013, 04:03:01 PM »
And to add when a game world starts, the demand is not what it will be. It will grow still for the first 3 years or so very rapidly, and then level at the "correct" level and grow then more slowly over time. This is to make the initial expansion slower.
....actually this was already said, sorry.  :P

(And also, the intention has never been to mimic real world airline routes here to the fullest extent. That is shortly stated impossible like previous posters said already. However a considerable number of real route and airport data is used in the calculations)
« Last Edit: October 04, 2013, 04:07:42 PM by sami »

rubiohiguey

  • Former member
Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2013, 04:31:02 PM »
I understand the part about demand growth. But the demand will rise both YYZ-LHR and JFK-LHR route, so after it rises, it will still be similar to the % level, just different pax number. Or SJO to MAD will rise, and will probably still be more than MEX to MAD in absolute and %-wise terms, though both will have incremented in the future time.

Or do routes increment differently? E.g. one city/route has slower growth than other? Or is the growth similar across the border of all city pairs?

Offline Sami

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Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2013, 04:52:52 PM »
I understand the part about demand growth. But the demand will rise both YYZ-LHR and JFK-LHR route, so after it rises, it will still be similar to the % level, just different pax number.

No, the growth is not linear at game start.

BD

  • Former member
Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2013, 09:44:20 PM »
And to add when a game world starts, the demand is not what it will be. It will grow still for the first 3 years or so very rapidly, and then level at the "correct" level and grow then more slowly over time. This is to make the initial expansion slower.
....actually this was already said, sorry.  :P
Is this true for those airports that get moved.  For example, HOU to IAH?  There was a one time jump, but I'm not sure if the growth I see right now in JA8 is the regular growth rate or the accelerated rate.

Offline Sami

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Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2013, 09:52:15 PM »
No, I was talking of the special rules and calculations set for new game worlds there only.

Though have to note that all major demand changes do take a long time in this new model. For example if demand were to drop from 1000 to 100 it will take months (unless there is some 'special event' triggered which makes it faster); there are certain limits how much it can go up/down within a game week (week is the demand recalculation period in this new system introduced this spring).
« Last Edit: October 04, 2013, 09:54:32 PM by sami »

BD

  • Former member
Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2013, 09:55:45 PM »
No, I was talking of the special rules and calculations set for new game worlds there only.

Though have to note that all major demand changes do take a long time in this new model. For example if demand were to drop from 1000 to 100 it will take months; there are certain limits how much it can go up/down within a week, which is the demand recalculation period in this new system introduced this spring. (unless there is some 'special event' triggered which makes it faster)
Then I take it that the growth I see now is the "normal world" growth...thanks for making that clear.

BD

  • Former member
Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2013, 10:08:31 PM »
In general, after doing the investigation about various routes yesterday and today, I find the demand pattern in AWS totally unrealistic, and this is making me disillusioned of AWS.
As others have mentioned, there is a limit to what can be done to simulate reality, and not all aspects of real life are amenable to absorbing game play. 

I think a good explanation has been given already on how the demand works, so cannot add much there.

But, I gathered from your earlier post asking for why AWS, it seemed you were interested in the depth of strategy and detail, and that it wasn't just a "clicking game".  Some aspects may not cleanly fit IRL but you will be challenged in the competitive worlds (after you got your feet wet in BW to learn basic mechanics).   

Also, I highly recommend you work with a mentor to start with, as the learning curve is steep.

Happy gaming!  ;D


Offline LemonButt

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Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2013, 01:42:47 PM »
I think demand just exploded.  One of my routes went from 600 pax to 1200 pax...

brique

  • Former member
Re: I find the demand totally unrealistic
« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2013, 04:16:31 PM »
I think demand just exploded.  One of my routes went from 600 pax to 1200 pax...

baby-boomers... Sami thinks of everything... :)

 

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