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Author Topic: Variable starting production speed/no allocated slots for first 6 months  (Read 903 times)

Offline Sanabas

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I don't think there's ever a case of a model being announced less than 6 months prior to launch. The current system I think has a default production speed, based on RL/plane size, for each model. Which can then increase by a certain amount, depending on orders. This causes two issues. One, some larger models have lines too slow to be very practical. Two, some popular models sell out so quickly that if you only log-in 6 RL hours after the launch, you can be looking at 5 years of full production queues. The first issue helps cause the second, as it funnels more players towards a handful of models. And the second gives a huge benefit simply for being lucky enough to be online at the right time, which is one of my pet hates, and something I think should be avoided if possible.

So, my suggestion is this:

When a model is launched, accept orders for the first 6 months (2.5-3 RL days, enough time for everyone to log in) without issuing them production slots. After that 6 months, allocate the slots. If a plane is really unpopular, use the current default speed. If a plane is very popular, use the same maximum speed, based on size/era, regardless of type. Base it on the current maximum speed of popular lines. Say for V.Large/JA (707, DC-8, TU-114), starts at 10/month, steadily increasing to 20/month after 12 months. For large, modern (737NG, a320), starts at 20, increases to 40/month. If a plane is somewhat popular, use a speed that gives the biggest order roughly 1 plane/25 days for v.large, 1/20 days for large, 1/15 days for med/small.

Then allocate the orders, whoever got the launch discount gets the first plane, then earliest orders get earlier planes, and everyone who ordered gets their first plane before anyone gets their 2nd.

Instead of taking 12 months or more to get the first 7 planes because production is only 4-5/month, you know you'll get 7 planes every 5 or 6 months, unless more than 20 airlines have put in a biggish order. Instead of being forced to wait 5 years for your first plane, you know you'll get it within a couple of months of launch, and get a steady supply, same as everyone else.

One potential problem would be when an existing line gets a new model, like the VC10 just did. New slots appear, people could order the older model and lock those slots up. Simple solution would be that if potential new slots are added thanks to a new model, they are automatically shown in white, as 'reserved for Super VC10', and then allocated to actual airlines 6 months later.

Offline Mr.HP

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Re: Variable starting production speed/no allocated slots for first 6 months
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2014, 09:43:10 AM »
Bump

I found that one of the very first to order and get up to 22 Very Large or 33 Large frame per year, is just too unfair

A system like Sanabas mentioned maybe complicated to set up, but a solution to limit of how many frame per year one airline can get, would be much easier to implement. IMO, 10 Very Large and 15 Large frames per year is a reasonable rate

For an unpopular line, the system then can check and move up rate if there is many vacant slots. This will encourage players to go for other type other than Airbus, Boeing, MD

Thanks
« Last Edit: January 17, 2014, 09:49:38 AM by Mr.HP »

BD

  • Former member
Re: Variable starting production speed/no allocated slots for first 6 months
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2014, 01:59:43 PM »
Very sensible suggestion.

One question:  When ordering, a delivery estimate is provided.  How does that work under this proposal?

If the rules are established as above, our expectations are set about delivery, maybe no estimate is required up front. 

Once the delivery schedule is set after the initial order period, might be nice to get a message, but one can look at their Aircraft Orders page and see what they are.

BD

  • Former member
Re: Variable starting production speed/no allocated slots for first 6 months
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2014, 02:12:47 PM »
Want to add that if this section of code is opened up for this feature request, would like to also see the Production Line stay open longer for some types of aircraft, particularly smaller ones and especially for the extra long game worlds, which likely resides in the same code section. 

The "short" production life of the smaller aircraft has a similar funneling effect.

The request has already been logged here:

http://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,50042.0.html

Offline JJP

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Re: Variable starting production speed/no allocated slots for first 6 months
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2014, 02:15:53 PM »
I would agree with Sanabas' suggestion.  

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Variable starting production speed/no allocated slots for first 6 months
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2014, 08:44:42 PM »
For an unpopular line, the system then can check and move up rate if there is many vacant slots. This will encourage players to go for other type other than Airbus, Boeing, MD

Yep. Say you're the only person who orders LH(ish) Tupolevs in that first 6 months, while the rest of the world stocks up on 707/DC-8. Instead of being forced to take every ~8th plane from the line, 1 every 2+ months while the line sits idle the rest of the time, you'd get 1 plane every 3-4 weeks, every ~4th plane from the line.

Even better, when ordering, you could have an option for the maximum frequency you're happy with. e.g. if you're buying them outright, maybe 1/month is all you can afford without running into serious cashflow issues. But if you're leasing, you want them ASAP. So if you're the only airline in the world wanting Tupolevs, why should it take 1 year for the only 8 ever made to roll off the line? Why wouldn't the factory produce them at the default rate of ~4/month, and send them all to you? The factory wouldn't shut down for weeks at a time when they've got a customer. Might even be able to build in more flexibility, so you commit to buying 24 Tupolevs at a maximum rate of 1/month (which could of course be slower) if the line is full/many people order, but if you're the only customer you'll buy 1/month, lease 3/month for 6 months, or even have you commit to buying 1/month, but because you're the only customer, you get all 24 in 6 months, but only pay for 1 plane/month over 2 years, plus a small extra cost for the ones you're using before you pay in full. Either way you're commited to 24 purchases, just that delivery date and payment date don't have to match up, because the manufacturer wants to look after you, their only customer.


Quote from: BD
One question:  When ordering, a delivery estimate is provided.  How does that work under this proposal?

As you said, the delivery estimate could just wait until 6 months after ordering. You could get a very rough estimate when ordering, which changes to delivery dates when they are assigned after 6 months, which may move around a little due to cancellations, increased speed of production, etc, same as now.

This could also work for existing lines early in a gameworld, or for less popular lines as the gameworld progresses. Have deadlines say every 3 months, when all orders in those 3 months are then assigned dates. e.g. All orders made in Jan, Feb, March get assigned to production dates on Mar 31, using production slots starting on Jul 1. While still letting you use an empty slot or three as you can now if there are empty slots in the next month or two. Again, makes less popular lines more viable, because you can get planes at a reasonable rate. You might be the only airline flying that unpopular 10 plane/month turboprop, so if you order 30 in February, and nobody else orders a single one, you get all 30 built in Jul/Aug/Sep. If 9 other people have the same idea, then everybody's getting 1 plane/month for 2.5 years.

Means more fairness in getting production slots, less about being online at the right time, and the big benefit would be making more fleets viable choices.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2014, 08:55:36 PM by Sanabas »

Offline JJP

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Yep. Say you're the only person who orders LH(ish) Tupolevs in that first 6 months, while the rest of the world stocks up on 707/DC-8. Instead of being forced to take every ~8th plane from the line, 1 every 2+ months while the line sits idle the rest of the time, you'd get 1 plane every 3-4 weeks, every ~4th plane from the line.

Even better, when ordering, you could have an option for the maximum frequency you're happy with. e.g. if you're buying them outright, maybe 1/month is all you can afford without running into serious cashflow issues. But if you're leasing, you want them ASAP. So if you're the only airline in the world wanting Tupolevs, why should it take 1 year for the only 8 ever made to roll off the line? Why wouldn't the factory produce them at the default rate of ~4/month, and send them all to you? The factory wouldn't shut down for weeks at a time when they've got a customer. Might even be able to build in more flexibility, so you commit to buying 24 Tupolevs at a maximum rate of 1/month (which could of course be slower) if the line is full/many people order, but if you're the only customer you'll buy 1/month, lease 3/month for 6 months, or even have you commit to buying 1/month, but because you're the only customer, you get all 24 in 6 months, but only pay for 1 plane/month over 2 years, plus a small extra cost for the ones you're using before you pay in full. Either way you're commited to 24 purchases, just that delivery date and payment date don't have to match up, because the manufacturer wants to look after you, their only customer.


I really like your thoughts on this, Sanabas, and could really open up the possibility of people gaining a tactical advantage by gaining more of a less favorable aircraft sooner than your rival.  Very interesting!

Offline AndreiX

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Only one issue with this: if it gives everyone a similar number of aircraft and we all get them in the same time frame, than AWS will lose one more key ellement from its market competivity. The game has allready enough issues regarding this subject. It is very hard to fight with a competitor, this will make it even harder.
We all have a list with the appropiate launch date of each aircraft (+/-18 months). Usually, when I am waiting for a new type I log in as many times as possible just to see if it launched or not. If I don't manage to get the launch discount, at least I am one of the first ones ordering.
I don't even wanna think how many will start to think alliances are cheating when you spot the plane and ask everyone on the alliance to order 5-10 for you and mostly your alliance will get the spots in the end... Or how many discussions of the "I ordered first" or "the timeframe was very short between us"...
This is just my point of view regarding this issue.
Sorry,
-1

Offline LotusAirways

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...popular models sell out so quickly that if you only log-in 6 RL hours after the launch, you can be looking at 5 years of full production queues... (it) gives a huge benefit simply for being lucky enough to be online at the right time... something I think should be avoided

Hi Sanabas and others;
As far as I am aware, players that spend a lot of time online buy planes for themselves AND also for leasing. It is the combination of both orders (buy to use + buy to lease/sell at expensive prices) that blocks the production lines for 5 years and more.

Isn't it much simpler to forbid leasing? And much closer to real life... in AWS we have airlines changing name in mid-game because they have more planes leased out than in operation :)

LA

Offline JJP

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I would be curious how real world manufacturers handle this in real life.  Obviously, I think they look for the airline that will give them the single biggest order and make them the launch customer.  From there, I am not sure how the manfacturer says "Plane #1 is going to X customer, and plane # 2 is going to x customer . . . "  This would be interesting. 

But, to further Sanabas' point, manufacturers secure orders first before going into full blown production.  I think his point is, if a particular aircraft secures only one customer, why should that customer have deliveries spread out so far?  On popular models, to Andre's point, this becomes a formidable issue.  Don't the manufacturers have this problem in real life, such that the customers tend to have delays on their deliveries because the manufacturer is so back logged? 

How do we determine who gets the first deliveries, the most deliveries, etc?  I don't like Lotus' suggestion of forbidding leasing.  I think that is a ham-handed approach that smashes the issue with a sledge-hammer instead of cutting it with a knife.  Alliances already say, "Hey, Plane X just launched!  Everyone get your orders in now!", so I am not sure this will be more of an issue with Sanabas' solution.

Overall, I think I like Sanabas solution vis-a-vis the current iteration.

Offline LemonButt

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Deliveries have to spaced out IRL because of takt time: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takt_time

Manufacturing is all about flow, so having 12 deliveries in 1 month and zero the rest of the year never happens--there is too much that goes into sourcing materials and building a supply chain to do it.

I think the simplest way is to create a queue of orders placed 1 year before certification.  At the 1 year point, a script loops through the queue and assigns production slots--1 per airline--until the queue is exhausted, which is essentially the same thing Sanabas is saying.  If an airline orders aircraft 4 years before cert and another orders 2 years before, the 4 year airline will get plane #2 only after the 2 year airline gets plane #1.

This gives every player a "fair shot" and putting in orders 1yr before certification and not having to wait a decade for delivery.

 

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