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Author Topic: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format  (Read 1508 times)

Offline ezzeqiel

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Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« on: August 09, 2013, 06:47:59 PM »
So, I started to think about this problem at the beginning of the scenario, and now it seems more likely every year that passes...


In short worlds, there is a huge initial pool of popular planes at the beginning of every scenario, that can virtually be used the entire length of the game (for example, 320s, 737s in MT; 737s 727s at DOTM, and DC6s, convairs, etc in JA)...

In the long games format, this is not the case anymore, and all the planes that will be used in the mid-late game, will have to be generated and purchased by the players...

So the key question is: will the production lines be able to satisfy the demand of the entire world without a initial pool of planes ? I'm starting to think the answer is no, so I start this thread...




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Let's compare JA with the recently opened DOTM:


In JA, 727 production lines, maxes out at 16 planes/month.

In DOTM, the initial (measured at mid1976) pool of 727 goes up to 4684 planes.


On this numbers, when current JA reaches 1976, we will have less than 2112 built 727s (less than half), with the aggravating that our airlines will have 15 years of operations (thus needing much more planes than the newly DOTM airlines of a new game)

Update: 30planes/month: 3960 planes by 1976. Still several hundreds planes down from initial DOTM pool.


-------------------------------


But, that's not the only problem... The later, more efficient models, will be even more scarce in relation to initial pools.

In current DOTM, 727-200adv (the most efficient model) has 3038 planes built.

In JA, we won't have the 727-200adv available for order until 1971... With that in mind, the 727-200adv will have a low availability with 960 built by 1976 being optimistic.


-------------------------------


The idea behind a long JA game, was to slowly increase the players slots, but while in a regular DOTM game, new players have a pool of 4600 planes (727model), in a late 1975 JA, they will only have 2112, which by the way, will be heavily contested by established and ultra big airlines.

And not only that, but the most 727s built will be the most ineficient models...




-------------------------------
-------------------------------




Let's see what will happen with the 737 model...

In current DOTM (again mid1976) there's 3667 built planes, with a big portion of them (3304) being the most efficient (-200adv).

In current JA, the production lines opens up at 1965, with first deliveries in '67... let's say 68' until the production lines stabilizes to big numbers... asuming, the line will have about 20-30/planes month (30 which is the same as caravelles now) (20 is what DOTM currently has) that gives us 2880/1920 built planes by 1976... Well below current DOTM numers...




-------------------------------
-------------------------------




This situation might be acceptable in a short world that ends in 1975, since we have a huge initial pool of planes that can (barely) still be used, and players slots keep constant, while some actually leaving by late game, but if we have to keep moving, and the idea is to attract more people in order to achieve the 700 players MT can support, we'll face problems ahead...


Also, this stats won't be appealing at all for new entrants, facing an already very hostile scenario with big established airlines, and facing a plane shortage much worse than an initial normal DOTM world...

-------------------------------

It's very likely that the situation will repeat in mid-end long format DOTM, were 320s, 737s (NG) are launched, comparing their production lines with MT initial pools. (I can't know since I don't have a recently open MT world to check initial pools and I don't remember the numbers)




-------------------------------
-------------------------------



My proposed solution is to increase production slots, at least to a number that will allow players to match DOTM initial pool numbers and later, MT initial numbers...


And of course, I'd like to hear what the community thinks about this.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2013, 08:39:12 PM by ezzeqiel »

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2013, 07:09:23 PM »
Expanding production slots is the solution--by making the game more responsive to player activity/demand.  There should be a hard limit of lets say 4 years max for any aircraft model.  So if there are zero production slots available for 4 years solid, the production line expands.  Let's say they expand production by 1 slot in 3 months as a result.  So out of the 48 months in that 4 year period, the next 3 months remain fixed and then the last 45 months go to n+1 and all the orders are moved up and new orders are put at the end of the queue.  If the queue goes past 48 months again, then you add one more production slot in 3 months.  So if there is a run on orders today, the first increase would be n+1 in 3 months, then the next one is n+1+1 in 6 months, etc.  The end result is no one ever has to wait more than 4 years for aircraft.

Considering the real world wait for a 737, one of the most popular aircraft models ever, is about 4 years, I don't think it is unreasonable.  Right now people just don't order planes because they don't want to wait 4+ years.  Using this system, the factory would tell them they would still be waiting 4+ years, however if demand is great enough we'll increase production and you'll get your aircraft in about 3 years instead.

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2013, 10:17:54 PM »
Expanding production slots is the solution--by making the game more responsive to player activity/demand.

Actually, learning to fly groups that aren't 727/737/a320/etc might be the solution.

And the 727 just launched, the fact that it's sold out for 5 years already means the production speed will get increased soon, whenever the system checks.

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2013, 12:24:38 AM »
Actually, learning to fly groups that aren't 727/737/a320/etc might be the solution.

I agree, however the main reason those other fleet groups are as attractive as they are is because of shorter production queues.  The standard production levels in AWS are based on the real world, but as we all know AWS has significantly more airlines, more demand, etc. than the real world.

Offline Kadachiman

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2013, 05:23:48 AM »
IMO - Leave it as it is....as it is not broken.

A longer game scenarios may/does require a different game strategy to be used than may have previously been used, this should have been taken into account when you started the game.
In fact I see this aspect as one of the best challenges in the long game scenario, being that we may finally see a spread of aircraft being used instead of the standard 737/320 approach.

Basically if you have to now pay the penalty of waiting for long production queues, then you should have taken that into account when planning your long game strategy at the beginning of the game...instead of doing the same as most and just have a strategy of using the 'A320 & B737 approach....and then want the game rules changed when your strategy hits a bump in the road.

Offline tcrlaf

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2013, 06:52:03 AM »
Easy solution- Plan ahead, way ahead. Know what your fleet mix is going to be 7 years out.

Easier said than done, I know.

Offline Mr.HP

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2013, 10:17:14 AM »
It's part of the great ultra long game world challenge. And since we're testing the concept of ultra long game world, why not leave to the players to choose how to response?

On the other hand, why don't you think it's actually the initial A/C pool is made too big? Why not reduce it, and slow down the growth of airlines in major hubs?

Offline Teadaze

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2013, 11:32:04 AM »
It's part of the great ultra long game world challenge. And since we're testing the concept of ultra long game world, why not leave to the players to choose how to response?

On the other hand, why don't you think it's actually the initial A/C pool is made too big? Why not reduce it, and slow down the growth of airlines in major hubs?

+1

this world's initial plane is wayyy too much compare to last JA. Making expansion too easy.

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2013, 12:10:20 PM »
You guys are missing the point.  In the real world, the production volumes change in response to demand.  Heck, some models don't even get put into production because of "projected demand".  That doesn't happen in AWS to the point it does IRL.  Right now production lines are based on the real world having ~200 airlines versus AWS which has ~500.  sami even says he starts new game worlds with the number of used aircraft set for 2-3x the number of players because there is never enough used aircraft to start a game world.

This goes back to the slots issue.  When all the slots are gone, it is impossible for other players to compete against you because of the artificial slot ceiling put in place.  If it takes 5+ years for an airline to get a non-Russian aircraft, it is impossible for other players to compete against you.

There is a reason players get bored and close down their airline, and it isn't because they are facing too much competition and finding it too difficult--it's because they find it way too easy.

So tell me, what happens when you have 100 airlines with 100 aircraft that are 15 years old and a huge pile of cash?  You end up with 5+ year long production queues, even for the secondary models that aren't MD/Boeing/Airbus.

Also, in AWS you have the not-so-realistic advantage of knowing that new models are on the horizon.  IRL airlines in 1960 didn't plan to add the MD-80 because no one had any idea what the MD-80 was.

In general, people seem hellbent on keeping competition away by keeping everything as finite as possible.  The real world doesn't work this way folks.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2013, 12:13:25 PM by LemonButt »

wtdawg

  • Former member
Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2013, 05:45:44 PM »
+1

this world's initial plane is wayyy too much compare to last JA. Making expansion too easy.

+2

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2013, 03:47:04 AM »
And the 727 just launched, the fact that it's sold out for 5 years already means the production speed will get increased soon, whenever the system checks.

Quote from: lemonbutt
You guys are missing the point.  In the real world, the production volumes change in response to demand.

727 production line will now reach 28/month.

I think it's much less of an issue for the ridiculously popular lines. It's more of an issue for the unpopular lines, for the big planes with really slow times. The TU-114 only does 5/month. The DC-8/707 both do 17. Triple the production line for the Tupolev, it suddenly becomes a much more attractive plane, much more of a viable alternative to Douglas/Boeing's near duopoly on LH planes.

Offline ezzeqiel

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2013, 08:28:34 PM »
727 production line will now reach 28/month.

Yes, raised to 30/month. I updated the thread.

I think it's much less of an issue for the ridiculously popular lines. It's more of an issue for the unpopular lines, for the big planes with really slow times. The TU-114 only does 5/month. The DC-8/707 both do 17. Triple the production line for the Tupolev, it suddenly becomes a much more attractive plane, much more of a viable alternative to Douglas/Boeing's near duopoly on LH planes.

This actually makes a lot of sense... "unpopular" planes have really slow lines because they are unpopular, but one of the main resaons they are unpopular is the low availability...



On the other hand, why don't you think it's actually the initial A/C pool is made too big? Why not reduce it, and slow down the growth of airlines in major hubs?

When I did this thread, I was not actually worried about the growth of big airlines at big hubs... I can afford to order 7 years ahead right now (or even more), so I can get all the 727-200adv I want (my original plan)...


I'm worried about new entrants in the game... obviously the game's not attractive enough right now, since there's just 263 players from 308 possible... more and more big airlines are going BK, leaving the big players no competition to deal with...




Anyway, if you wanna limit big airlines in big hubs, the way to go is decreasing big hubs demand, and increasing pax at all other airports... limiting planes or slots in order to prevent big airlines at big hubs to grow doesn't work at all, because it also prevents competition, making big money cows airlines with billions made very easy...

(look at current JA game... biggest revenue airlines: Peanut (LHR); Pac air (LAX); Mariair (JFK)... LAX aside (which BTW was also hogged some time ago), they are all in heavily slot hogged airports... they get the slots, they are instantly rich, since no competition can take those pax away)... (if we keep moving.. connecting chicago (ORD - heavily slot hogged), pandemic airways (HND - heavily slot hogged), etc...

Next airlines, are in airports not heavily hogged, but with very few slots availabilty.. (slots that went free with recent BKs)
« Last Edit: August 12, 2013, 08:40:02 PM by ezzeqiel »

Offline JJP

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2013, 12:52:45 PM »

I'm worried about new entrants in the game... obviously the game's not attractive enough right now, since there's just 263 players from 308 possible... more and more big airlines are going BK, leaving the big players no competition to deal with...






Hmmm . . . I have been thinking about entering this scenario.  I don't think I will now!   :o

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2013, 02:13:36 PM »
It's easy to start now. Lots of cheapish planes on the market, lots of viable airports. Just some airports are now more or less permanently out of slots, and will only be decent places to start if an existing airline BKs. But there are still plenty of good options.

BD

  • Former member
Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2013, 09:43:44 PM »
So, I started to think about this problem at the beginning of the scenario, and now it seems more likely every year that passes...

In short worlds, there is a huge initial pool of popular planes at the beginning of every scenario, that can virtually be used the entire length of the game (for example, 320s, 737s in MT; 737s 727s at DOTM, and DC6s, convairs, etc in JA)...

In the long games format, this is not the case anymore, and all the planes that will be used in the mid-late game, will have to be generated and purchased by the players...

So the key question is: will the production lines be able to satisfy the demand of the entire world without a initial pool of planes ? I'm starting to think the answer is no, so I start this thread...
We are somewhere between 15% and 20% of the way through the game's timeline.  Is it looking like the above concern will come true?

Or, as per the below references, is it mitigated by slower growth in demand that, with other game dynamics, make different strategic decisions on aircraft more important?

http://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,48445.0.html

http://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,49001.0.html

jwriteclub

  • Former member
Re: Planes scarcity problem ahead - Long game format
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2013, 03:35:22 AM »
The much longer timeframe and slower pax increase coupled with the lower cost of maintenance on smaller planes changes the dynamic somewhat.

For instance, if you can do a D-check for 25% the cost on a run out airframe, if you can get the airframe for say 60% the actual value on a 10-12 year old plane, you've got yourself a plane that you can run for another 8 years or so.

I anticipate that we'll see people running older planes for longer, especially on more rural routes.

 

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