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Author Topic: Oversupply craziness  (Read 1168 times)

Offline ezzeqiel

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Oversupply craziness
« on: July 10, 2013, 10:26:28 PM »
Come on.. is this really necessary ??




When does the demand for this world starts to grow ? I wanna start using some jets :)

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2013, 10:30:04 PM »
good luck being profitable on that one :)

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2013, 11:18:37 PM »
As that's all competition, keep it up. 

Offline schro

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2013, 11:24:32 PM »
I think you should add an additional frequency

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2013, 11:34:43 PM »
Schro, I don't think he can add another frequency.  All the slots are already used on this one route :)

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2013, 02:44:46 AM »
First everyone complains about being left out of it, and now the first start to complain about overcrowding and no demand ?

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2013, 02:47:39 AM »
to exchibg's point, the game must have some balance when people are complaining simultaneously about too much competition and too little competition.  Any tweaks should make sure that we don't overdo it one way or another.

Good luck to those on the DTW-ORD segment.


Offline Sanabas

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2013, 03:06:47 AM »
There's too little competition in that many big airports started off empty, or with minimal comp. There are always places with 'too much' competition because they happen to have not only been picked by a lot of airlines, but picked by a lot of competent players. When the two airports have 9 airlines between them and a bucketload of slots, it's not that surprising to see something like this on a big route. Whether you're in an airport with really heavy comp or not frequently boils down to luck.

Offline Superbenj

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2013, 09:03:52 AM »
It is KW001 my very first route, I had no idea it had got that bad. Im making a slight profit but considering utilising the slots better now that ORD is full!
« Last Edit: July 11, 2013, 11:52:17 AM by Superbenj »

Offline knobbygb

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2013, 11:24:50 AM »
To be fair, that is the only route from ORD that is so over-supplied.  Most others are at 100% to 150% with some still as yet unserved.

Anyway, fuel and other costs are cheap.  I am not flying ORD-DTW but I have one route out of ORD that is running at about 12% (9 to 12 seats filled on an 89 seat DC6) and still turning a small profit.

Offline ezzeqiel

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2013, 02:03:07 PM »
First everyone complains about being left out of it, and now the first start to complain about overcrowding and no demand ?


I'm not complaining... I think it's funny  ;D

Also, this is my "main" route there (the other is a "SH red-eye"):



It's not my best route, but it's still profitable... take into account it's a 200nm route... I think I'll keep it for now...




I think you should add an additional frequency

LOL  :laugh:

Believe it or not, somebody actually did :P




Offline mramelet

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2013, 08:26:10 AM »
Come on.. is this really necessary ??




When does the demand for this world starts to grow ? I wanna start using some jets :)
Yeah tell me about it...
4 competitors in Detroit is just crazy. Demand is soooo low :-(
You're lucky everyone went more for the DC6, and left you alone with your CV. We started nicely, you SH with CV, I LH with DC6. But 2 guys added up, and went for DC6 as well.
But it won't last forever, everyone is ordering CV now, even though you took a significant advantage.

Offline ezzeqiel

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2013, 01:39:08 PM »
But it won't last forever, everyone is ordering CV now, even though you took a significant advantage.

Yeah, I don't understand why.. there's still some DC-6 routes available...

You're lucky everyone went more for the DC6, and left you alone with your CV. We started nicely, you SH with CV, I LH with DC6. But 2 guys added up, and went for DC6 as well.

That happened only the first weeks of game (you can't call me "lucky" for that)... this airline, Sirion, (second by share in KDTW), went for DC-6s just as much as he went for convairs...

Just from the beginning (1-2 months from the start), he had 4 DC-6s, and 2 convairs... he added up evenly both planes, and now he has 12 DC-6s and 10 convairs... he added as much DC-6s as he added convairs, so he compited with me as much as he compited with you...
He also throwed some of the DC-6s on me... not just "your" routes... I remember when he took ATL route (with 3 DC-6s freq), which I dominated, my LFs on that route plummeted from high 90s down to 30s (now I recovered)...
I don't remember him taking much of your routes, but I didn't check often... (I do remember him taking empty routes before you do)...


I say again, there's still some DC-6s routes empty, and I think that's your mistake (adding a fleet while there's still destinations available), and not me being lucky...

I don't think it's a good call to switch strategies because I'm doing slightly better, while there's still some routes available... but time will tell...


Lastly, I don't know how this guy Sirion is doing what he's doing... he claims it's his first game, he registered only 10 days before JA opened, yet he's doing a better game than yours... beginners luck ?? probably... I don't know...

Offline ezzeqiel

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2013, 02:58:58 PM »
Look at this...

This is one of the latest routes I opened, that still (barely) fit my convairs...




While this route, perfectly fitted for any DC-6 (your main and first fleet), is still free, and nobody takes it




Even tho, you (and sirion) prefer to get a second fleet of convairs and come after my routes...


The way I'm seeing it, that's no being lucky at all...

Offline knobbygb

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2013, 04:16:16 PM »
Quote
Even tho, you (and sirion) prefer to get a second fleet of convairs and come after my routes...


I think there's good reason why shorter routes get filled quickly at the start of the game.  It's not a conspiracy.  It's always like that:

It takes approx. 4 'short' routes (as above) to fill out a schedule of a Convair
It takes approx 1.5 'long' routes (as above) to fill out a schedule of a DC6

At the start, small planes tend to be more popular because:

People can afford them more easily
They are often more readily available
Small planes make more profit (per $ investment) than larger ones - general Airwaysim rule.
People want to grab as many slots as possible

Thus, many small planes "eating up" all the short routes and they're ALWYAS over filled very quickly at the start of Jet Age while others sit empty for longer.  It usually the way.

Once people have more available cash, and little room for local growth, the longer routes will be taken too.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2013, 04:19:50 PM by [SC] knobbygb »

Offline ezzeqiel

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2013, 04:31:01 AM »
I totally agree with you knobbygb... that's why I went SH...


But mramelet was suggesting that I have a higher share in our base because I was lucky that the competition went after his LH dc-6 routes insted of my SH routes..

I pointed out that competition went after both routes, and that there's still a lot of his original routes empty, so that's not the cause I'm doing (for now) better in market share... It's because better or poorer decisions by both of us...

Offline ekaneti

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2013, 10:06:11 PM »
This is what happens when costs like fuel and labor are cheap.

Offline mramelet

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2013, 09:46:35 AM »
Lastly, I don't know how this guy Sirion is doing what he's doing... he claims it's his first game, he registered only 10 days before JA opened, yet he's doing a better game than yours... beginners luck ?? probably... I don't know...
Yes, don't know how he did it honestly.
With a higher CI, he killed me. I guess he dropped prices to have a better LF, but even though I tried the same, my LF remained low, and my profitability dropped.
Also the other competitor (STH) didn't help me either, as he also opened a lot of DC6 routes in the beginning. I ran quickly out of cash due to very low LF, and couldn't even re-adjust my routes.
Anyway, it's always easier afterwards, but yes, I should have gone for SH in the beginning. The thing is that when I started, I was alone at the airport...
Also one thing that is very different in this scenario compared to what I had seen in the past is that planes were largely available.
In previous scenarios I had played (few years ago), CV240 and DC6 were difficult to grab in the first years.
This time, it was very easy! Which made me make a mistake by ordering a 3rd fleet when there were no more planes I wanted available for a short while.
Anyway, I restarted from Memphis, demand is soooo looowww :-(
So I'll have to be very patient before I'll ever have a decent airline again.

Offline ezzeqiel

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Re: Oversupply craziness
« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2013, 02:09:44 PM »
Anyway, I restarted from Memphis, demand is soooo looowww :-(

good luck !! Sirion is doing a pretty good game... he's only 4% away in market share from me in detroit now... we'll see what happens...

BTW, I think demand is really low in everything but ATL and ORD :P.. (and maybe lax, and some more top 10...)

 

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