Crap! I did not get that nuance. So the break-even is double my calculation. Thanks for pointing that out. Is that true for hedged fuel purchases too (my guess is yes, but checking)?
No. Hedged price simply replaces the unhedged global price.
Just to be clear, I will be getting the benefits of BOTH the hedge and the supplier contract on my home base fuel purchases...one does not override the other, correct?
I ask because the graph shows the market price, and the hedged price (though it somehow reports a "history" of hedged prices overtop - makes it hard to see market price). It also shows numerically the current market price and the hedge price above the graph. However, it does not show the supplier price (only the active contract shows elsewhere at the bottom of the web page), so it is not clear what price I am paying.
If you haven't hedged at all, the hedged price = the market price, so that history of hedged prices is just a history of the market price. You're paying your hedged price* less discount at HQ, and your hedged price everywhere else.
If you want a rule of thumb to check if a supplier contract is worth it, simply take your weekly fuel bill x 2.15 x % discount/100, and that's the monthly amount you'll save. If that's more than the monthly contract price, you win. If not, you lose.
*Subject to changes depending on which country you're in, in theory some countries are more expensive, but there's no way to see the exact scaling values anywhere in game. Not that you need to, it doesn't make enough difference.