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Author Topic: Ultra long range routes  (Read 2032 times)

Offline Superbenj

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Ultra long range routes
« on: April 14, 2013, 09:48:19 AM »
Is there any point at all in running an Ultra long range route 8,000+nm, or can you simply not make the economics work with these?

Offline Infinity

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2013, 11:28:30 AM »
They can work under certain circumstances, namely:
- Operating the most able aircraft for that route (later on it would be the A350-900)
- Owning said aircraft
- Having no competition
- Not supplying 100% of the route so there is space for a rather hefty price increase
- Having economies of scale at work, meaning only flying those routes if you already have a rather big fleet of the type you are using for them on shorter, more profitable routes.

And even then, those routes will not turn a very noticeable profit.


SuriProf4

  • Former member
Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2013, 04:23:02 PM »
They can work under certain circumstances, namely:

- Not supplying 100% of the route so there is space for a rather hefty price increase



does this mean, as example, if demand is 450 for a route, but aircraft seats 275, i wouldnot want to add a second flight to the route? therefore i can use rates at default + x% ?

would doing this (1 flight to route) cause the demand to go down, stay same, increase very very minimal?

this is taking the view of no competition on route

Offline Infinity

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2013, 05:57:57 PM »
On an 8,000nm route, yes. Don't add a second flight. However I would like to know which aircraft you are using with 275 seats? If it's a 777, a 777 does not earn money on such a configuration. Never ever use premium seats. Standard all over.

You got the rest correct though.
If you raise prices, demand goes down (not displayed, but the seats you can actually sell go down), so you have to do it gradually when Route Image hits a high value.

SuriProf4

  • Former member
Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2013, 06:22:59 PM »
i was just using simple numbers. no paticular aircraft.

Offline AIRmoe

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2013, 07:12:48 PM »
On an 8,000nm route, yes. Don't add a second flight. However I would like to know which aircraft you are using with 275 seats? If it's a 777, a 777 does not earn money on such a configuration. Never ever use premium seats. Standard all over.

You got the rest correct though.
If you raise prices, demand goes down (not displayed, but the seats you can actually sell go down), so you have to do it gradually when Route Image hits a high value.

I'm planning on an Algiers to Sydney ~9000NM route using a B777-200LR on a 200-15-4 Premium seating configuration. The route itself has ~300 PAX demand per day. Planning on flying the route at least 3 times weekly return. Would it not work? Especially with premium seating, considering that it's an ~24 hour flight, so I assumed the comfort is a must to attract sales on such a long flight. Btw, I'm in BW, where expenses are significantly lower.

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2013, 08:47:04 PM »
772LR is only good to fly to Arizona and remain there.

Offline AIRmoe

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2013, 09:20:55 PM »
772LR is only good to fly to Arizona and remain there.

Meaning ...

Offline ArcherII

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2013, 09:31:24 PM »
Meaning ...

What beer can are you drinking now?

Offline AIRmoe

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2013, 09:32:55 PM »
What beer can are you drinking now?

lol I mean why is B772LR that bad?

Offline Infinity

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2013, 09:38:57 PM »
Would it not work?

No. You need an as full as possible plane + heavily jacked up prices in an owned aircraft to make such a route profitable.
A 772LR can seat over a hundred passengers more than what you are planning, the prices won't go up for enough with decent LFs to make that viable.
A 9,000nm route with 300 demand cannot earn money. If it had 600 demand and you were flying a 349 seat 772LR that way, it could work. But what you are planning is burning money.

lol I mean why is B772LR that bad?

It's not necessarily the aircraft, it's the length of the route mostly. The greater the distance, the less attractive a route. 9,000nm is one of the longest possible routes in the game and just not viable except under the most perfect circumstances, which are:
A large fleet of owned aircraft bringing together a) no leasing cost b) lower insurance cost c) lower maintenance due to economies of scale, demand well exceeding what you could supply with a fully standard seated aircraft to be able to jack up prices by tens of percents, perfect take-off and landing times, no competition and not being dependent on the routes profits.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2013, 09:44:10 PM by saftfrucht »

Offline AIRmoe

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2013, 09:47:22 PM »
Thank you very much sir!

Offline AIRmoe

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2013, 09:51:40 PM »
My other question was how can you make a Premium seating configuration useful?

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2013, 03:09:57 AM »
I'm planning on an Algiers to Sydney ~9000NM route using a B777-200LR on a 200-15-4 Premium seating configuration. The route itself has ~300 PAX demand per day. Planning on flying the route at least 3 times weekly return. Would it not work? Especially with premium seating, considering that it's an ~24 hour flight, so I assumed the comfort is a must to attract sales on such a long flight. Btw, I'm in BW, where expenses are significantly lower.

It'll work. Probably. It'll make less money per week than flying a 5000 NM route 5-6 times, but it's still doable, particularly in BW. Whole point of BW is to try stuff like that and see what happens, anyway. So fly it and see. The route itself should be profitable. It may not make enough to pay for the plane's lease costs. But if your airline is big enough and flying enough shorter routes to be looking at 9000 NM routes, a couple of planes that don't quite break even won't BK you.

Quote
My other question was how can you make a Premium seating configuration useful?

In any situation where premium seats are useful, having a config with more standard seats instead is almost certainly more useful.

Offline schro

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2013, 03:56:59 AM »
My other question was how can you make a Premium seating configuration useful?

By removing it and replacing it with standard seating

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2013, 05:09:19 AM »
nice one schro - you made me laugh - but it does seem that the consensus is that the marginal utility of premium over standard seating is negative (although there is a noticeable benefit from standard over HD seating)....

Generally, the more PAX you get on a plane the better.  Premium seating makes that really hard.

Talentz

  • Former member
Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2013, 05:13:21 AM »
I'm planning on an Algiers to Sydney ~9000NM route using a B777-200LR on a 200-15-4 Premium seating configuration. The route itself has ~300 PAX demand per day. Planning on flying the route at least 3 times weekly return. Would it not work? Especially with premium seating, considering that it's an ~24 hour flight, so I assumed the comfort is a must to attract sales on such a long flight. Btw, I'm in BW, where expenses are significantly lower.

Owned 77L on 9600nm mission, 3x weekly w/ 349 seat config produced 1.1-1.3m per week. At fuel peak the aircraft made around 500-600k during the last MT gameworld.

Provided you own the aircraft and have economics to scale, as long as your route is big enough for the aircraft to be flown in a max profit configuration, it will work. Leasing said aircraft is a waste, don't bother.

Interestingly enough, A388s were my most profitable aircraft. Some were making 1.4m/wk with leases! Here is a list of my most profitable flights from the last MT game:

A388 on 3500nm route (3.5m/wk)
773 on 3000nm route (2.8m/wk)
A388 on 8600nm route (2.4m/wk)
77W on 7200nm route (1.8m/wk)
77W on 6600nm route (1.5m/wk)
A388 w/ lease on 8600nm route (1.4m/wk)
77E on 7200nm route (1.3m/wk)
77E on 6600nm route (1.1m/wk)
77L on 9600nm route (1.1m/wk)
773 on 8500nm tech stop (800k/wk)
77E on 7760nm route (285max) 600k/wk to lost money when fuel reached 1050+

Every aircraft was just about owned. Don't try VLH and ULH with leased aircraft. Just don't.

By removing it and replacing it with standard seating

Lol. 95% of all routes should always be flown in standard config. The other 5%, is not worth you trying...


Talentz



Offline Mr.HP

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2013, 06:32:53 AM »
Owned 77L on 9600nm mission, 3x weekly w/ 349 seat config produced 1.1-1.3m per week.
3 per week is just too few. I put 2 x 9000 plus 2 x 5-6000 routes and they made 2m profit weekly

Talentz

  • Former member
Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2013, 07:18:33 AM »
3 per week is just too few. I put 2 x 9000 plus 2 x 5-6000 routes and they made 2m profit weekly

Either way... ULH worked.

 :)

Talentz

Offline TFC1

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Re: Ultra long range routes
« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2013, 09:55:19 AM »
In the previous MT-game, I operated A380s from Kuala Lumpur. Set up with 7-day scheduling, I made in excess of $2 million per week with leased aircraft. I operated routes to the US East Coast (8000nm +), and had no problem making a profit. But the conditions to do this are that you have sufficient demand and little or no competition. ULH with competition and borderline demand will kill your airline, especially with leased aircraft.

 

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