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Author Topic: Fuel Spike  (Read 3946 times)

Offline Vanquo

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  • Posts: 78
Fuel Spike
« on: March 13, 2013, 03:05:03 PM »
Hows the fuel spike going guys? I hedged 100% back at 233 :p

Offline dmoose42

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  • Posts: 1264
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2013, 03:08:10 PM »
I hardly call this a fuel spike - fuel will likely be 2-3 times this in a few years. (I am hedged at 270 after cost of hedge is taken into consideration).

This is just a minor bump, although given the number of airlines flying relatively fuel inefficient aircraft, should it continue to rise into the 400-500 range we may start to see some suffering.

ReedME

  • Former member
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2013, 03:38:44 PM »
I'm loving it, sitting here with my 267 after hedging fee, watching it rise. RISE BABY RISE! Come back down next February.

Offline Vanquo

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2013, 05:22:20 PM »
Yeah one of my competitors is leasing two 747sp's that slurp up the fuel at 10,000 kg/hr so I'm hoping it keeps rising.

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2013, 05:48:04 PM »
I think you cursed it.  Now it's down to 307.

ReedME

  • Former member
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2013, 06:10:27 PM »
That's just a faint sliver of hope for those who are hoping to god it doesn't keep rising

brique

  • Former member
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2013, 10:56:29 PM »
That's just a faint sliver of hope for those who are hoping to god it doesn't keep rising

Abandon hope, all ye who play here : death, taxes and fuel spikes await us all....

Offline Alberto

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2013, 08:39:38 AM »
Since we already know that fuel price is going to raise during the years (at an average yearly rate greater than the % you pay for hedging for 1 year) and since we know that it is, on the other hand, very volatile in the short term, wouldn't an optimal strategy be to always hedge 100% of the fuel? You might loose something here and there, but in the long run you win. Or do you?

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2013, 09:20:46 AM »
Always climbing fuel prices are not a guarantee, as fuel prices and spikes are not tied to real world and run at random.
In last MT game fuel prices first declined and then got stuck at low level towards end of game, so I lost by hedging.
Fuel hedging is a lottery.

Offline Infinity

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    • Aviation Awareness
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2013, 10:03:01 AM »
Fuel hedging is a lottery.

Not in the first game years.

Offline [SC] - King Kong

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2013, 01:56:42 PM »
Always climbing fuel prices are not a guarantee, as fuel prices and spikes are not tied to real world and run at random.
In last MT game fuel prices first declined and then got stuck at low level towards end of game, so I lost by hedging.
Fuel hedging is a lottery.

Agreed, but its true that with hedging you know where you end up, fuel wise. The problem is not during your hedge period, if you hedged high, or low. But the problem is occuring when your hedge runs out and suddenly your fuel price is not 100 but 300.

Airlines which do not hedge are suffering the same but can at least change their day to day strategy on the rising price as they ntice all the time. If you do not prepare well you'll be the one ending up dead. Problem is your spending, if your profit decreases but you are spending the same (lets say deliveries of planes) you're doomed :)

I'm flying turboprops, they're doing allright, just a little playing time to get my mind of the upcoming exams heh

Offline Infinity

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    • Aviation Awareness
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2013, 08:30:21 AM »
The current fuel prices are a joke, and I am not saying that because I have a bad hedge, but because people can get away with mistakes that should kill them.

Offline Mr.HP

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2013, 09:05:15 AM »
Agree. I think it should be at least 500-600 for now

Offline jamier

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2013, 11:46:06 AM »
Agreed, $348 for fuel is hardly a spike.

Offline GjedDa

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2013, 06:38:09 AM »
Fuel hedge is never lottery. If you hedge your Fuel on a level you know you will earn money. Its just a chance you will earn less money. So its just a way to know the future ( atleast next 12 months ) and sometimes thats alot better then the alternative.

mattb

  • Former member
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2013, 12:13:03 PM »
I am glad I hedged at $589. It is at $646 now. A few BK's going on!

cturner9953

  • Former member
Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2013, 02:42:25 PM »
U hedged at 386 until April 2002 ;D

Offline carrisi

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2013, 10:24:19 AM »

Wow. Almost $700/T. Now thats going to cause some BKs since it is not reflected in real history!

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2013, 11:53:43 AM »
It looks almost like in real world.  Of 534 airlines, 206 have negative CV.

Offline Kadachiman

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Re: Fuel Spike
« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2013, 01:45:46 PM »
From USD322 to USD744 in a 12 month period, now that is really a fuel spike....ouch

 

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