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Author Topic: The End is Near - Repent!  (Read 3347 times)

Offline JumboShrimp

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The End is Near - Repent!
« on: February 27, 2013, 06:20:50 AM »
Ok, last hours of MT7.  First full game with the new pax allocation system, and I think it works ok.

One thing that this game was totally missing were challenges presented by global economics.  There was kind of a 9/11, it seemed less severe as in MT6.

What seemed to be missing were economic recessions and high fuel prices.  Completely absent in last 10-15 years of game play.  Hopefully, Sami's new modelling tools:

http://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,26356.msg251037.html#msg251037

will have surprises and challenges for us in MT8.

Last 2/3 of the game were totally static.  All top 20 airlines (in CV) started on day 1, and there were few openings later on for late starters to rise quickly.

Challenging economic times can bankrupt major airlines and open up airports for newcommers who can take advantage of the openings.  Not a lot of that happened in MT7.  As far as I can tell, the only real late starter who was able to catapult himslef to top 20 in many categories was Jona (Lauterjung Logistics Ltd.) who started in 2014.

See you all in MT8.

Offline Mr.HP

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2013, 09:15:18 AM »
Quote
As far as I can tell, the only real late starter who was able to catapult himslef to top 20 in many categories was Jona (Lauterjung Logistics Ltd.) who started in 2014

I'd like to nominate Terminus Airways, who started in 2009 in the crowded and almost fully controlled airport: ATL, but still managed to do great and get in top 10 in many categories

Offline Infinity

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2013, 10:34:36 AM »
He indeed did impressively, although it was only possible due to the new game mechanics first implemented in this world.

Offline Mr.HP

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2013, 01:29:48 PM »
Did you mean that frequency doesn't play a big role like before?

Offline Teadaze

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2013, 01:34:50 PM »
He indeed did impressively, although it was only possible due to the new game mechanics first implemented in this world.

I am wondering what mechanics you are talking about also

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2013, 02:37:22 PM »
I have seen several comments that it is more difficult to drive an airline out of business with the new pax allocation rules. 

But I don't know how much the new rules contributed to it an how much a 33% "discount" on fuel for last 10-15 years of the game contributed...

Offline Jetsetter

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2013, 03:16:27 PM »
My first airline sat on cruise control for the first 15 or so years of the game world. I restarted and while if I had longer, I could've certainly filled out the country, I could see the same degree of staticism evolving again. While I may get p***y seeing someone else take up my routes, it's invariably watching another human fight you for the market that makes the game so worthwhile.

Talentz

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2013, 03:56:53 AM »
I have seen several comments that it is more difficult to drive an airline out of business with the new pax allocation rules. 

Really? I was under the impression that it was more balanced in respect of older airline vs newer. At least in the sense that the pax calculation can be more favorable to either airline. Before it was more static with frequency stacking so high in the calculation. Provided this all hinges on the older airline following anti-competition rules as stated...

Fuel on the other hand has a higher influence on an airline in general terms. So your view about low fuel is correct...

Sami: More dynamic fuel spikes like the mini-scenarios are needed to insure a more playable GW for the end-term. Is the message you wish to send Shrimp?


Talentz

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2013, 05:22:46 AM »
Really? I was under the impression that it was more balanced in respect of older airline vs newer. At least in the sense that the pax calculation can be more favorable to either airline. Before it was more static with frequency stacking so high in the calculation. Provided this all hinges on the older airline following anti-competition rules as stated...

I am not too sure that the new pax allocation rules changed things that much as far as old vs. new airline.  There is a way to play defensively as a new airline, especially at big US airports where 2 smaller airline survived vs. much bigger and wealthier airlines in MT7.  Terminus Airways, mentioned earlier was one of the two.  If you recognize the situation you are in, as an underdog, and adjust your strategy accordingly, it is possible to survive under old and new rules.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2013, 05:33:56 AM by JumboShrimp »

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2013, 05:33:01 AM »
Fuel on the other hand has a higher influence on an airline in general terms. So your view about low fuel is correct...

Sami: More dynamic fuel spikes like the mini-scenarios are needed to insure a more playable GW for the end-term. Is the message you wish to send Shrimp?

Yeah, the low fuel price, IMO has a much bigger influence.  And since the fuel price was pretty much stuck for last 10-15 years of MT7 in a narrow range, at a very low level, not too many airlines bankrupted involuntarily, assuming at least somewhat competitive play.

The fuel price should matter.  Your interpretation of my message is loud and clear.  In the real live, just about all of the airlines, big and small, live in a constant struggle for survival.  Any economic adversity puts many of the to the brink (or over the brink) of bankruptcy.

Sami has some new tools to simulate these, so hopefully, we will see a more challenging MT8.

Another area that should play a role is interest rates and credit ratings of an airline.  Right now, these 2 factors are pretty much irrelevant.  Most of the airlines, after initial growth, don't touch the loans, so the whole interest rate and credit ratings are irrelevant as a result for the rest of the game.  Here is a post of mine how interest rates and credit ratings could play a role in leasing aircraft:

http://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,46059.msg253776.html#msg253776

Offline Sanabas

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2013, 05:54:48 AM »
I think the new rules make it much easier to start up and prosper in a very big airport, provided there are slots. I don't think there's as much difference in a medium sized airport, and of course it's always extremely tough if your chosen HQ is very short on slots.

It's easy to put 6 x turboprops on a 2000+ pax route, and get more or less full loads. An airline can still be forced to run at a loss on a 200 pax route by a bigger airline with more money also choosing to run at a loss on that route. But it can't be done on the larger routes, it's very easy to get a foothold, make good profits, and use that to build on. When my 9 seater experiment ended, I briefly started in ORD, using turboprops and then medium jets. I had big profit margins, no way I could have been driven to BK, even with a concerted effort by the huge airlines, but it was also boring, world only had ~6 years left, so I didn't stay.

I think fuel spikes claim the big, inefficient airlines even more than they hurt small startups. I saw 400+ plane airlines in DOTM go from big profits to terminal death spiral with one big spike. Keeps things more interesting, for sure.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2013, 06:25:11 AM »
Yup, that's a way to play defensively.  And you don't have to necessarily limit yourself to small aircraft and / or turbo props.  You can employ the same strategy using bigger, 100+ pax aircraft...

It works in the US, land of the plentiful slots.  In Europe, OTOH, with the slot reduction in MT7 (for example at AMS, CDG slots went from 94 to 74 slots), you can easily slot lock the airport.  If I had a serious challenger at CDG in MT7 later in the game, I could have just slot locked the airport, since I had access to a ton of aircraft as an incumbent.  A challenger could not never keep up taking slots due to slow arrival rate of aircraft.

So while the pax allocation was a plus, subsequent reduction of slots, combined with no bankruptcies of any incumbents (due to low fuel price), Europe (and other slot limited airports) were extremely inhospitable to newcomers in MT7.

Offline Sami

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2013, 03:20:45 PM »
There was kind of a 9/11, it seemed less severe as in MT6.

This is by the way caused by the new demand calculation system.

We are now pre-calculating the demand for all routes (instead of on-the-fly calculation in previous version), and this includes also a feature that "softens" any sudden drops or raises of the demand. For example if the today's demand of a route is 500pax and the tomorrow's calculated true demand would be zero (0) the system does not set the demand as zero tomorrow. Instead it slowly lowers the demand from 500 to 0 over a period of some game months. Same the other way too.

The 911 effect is preprogrammed into the global air travel index, which all demand follows, but with the dampening feature it is less evident. This is something that would be "fixed" in the future with the introduction of a separate "events" module which is another layer on top of the current calculation that controls any short term and country or airport specific demand changes. (initial planning stage only so far)    ..technically not difficult but the global and historical data for this is a mess.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: The End is Near - Repent!
« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2013, 08:01:09 PM »
This is by the way caused by the new demand calculation system.

We are now pre-calculating the demand for all routes (instead of on-the-fly calculation in previous version), and this includes also a feature that "softens" any sudden drops or raises of the demand. For example if the today's demand of a route is 500pax and the tomorrow's calculated true demand would be zero (0) the system does not set the demand as zero tomorrow. Instead it slowly lowers the demand from 500 to 0 over a period of some game months. Same the other way too.

I think the softening would be fine, if it is programmed that way.  Maybe the pax slump shold just be programmed to be deeper than originally, since the softening is going to lessen it.

The 911 effect is preprogrammed into the global air travel index, which all demand follows, but with the dampening feature it is less evident. This is something that would be "fixed" in the future with the introduction of a separate "events" module which is another layer on top of the current calculation that controls any short term and country or airport specific demand changes. (initial planning stage only so far)    ..technically not difficult but the global and historical data for this is a mess.

The "events" would be great.  There could be a few historical.  Everything does not have to be historical.  A few random ones would work.  Random as far as players are concerned, but they could be pre-programmed in the game world at random times.

 

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