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Author Topic: Painful Fuel Prices  (Read 4379 times)

Offline swiftus27

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Painful Fuel Prices
« on: January 02, 2013, 02:03:27 AM »
There has been no respite from these prices.  Airlines are falling left and right.

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2013, 02:12:38 AM »
What's it up to?

Offline ZombieSlayer

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2013, 02:18:05 AM »
$84/1,000kgs and its only 1963. I have played every JA since JA2 and I have not seen fuel top $60 before ~1967 before, and normally fuel is in the $40 range at this point in a game. Either a major reprieve is coming or half of the airlines left are going to go Tango Uniform before we hit the 10 year mark.

Edit: for comparison, 1,000 kgs is 2,200 lbs, 2,200 lbs is ~321 gallons, 321 gallons is ~5.84 barrels. In 1963, a barrel of Oil was $2.91 and over the past 20 years (best data I could find) Jet-A costs about 30% more per barrel than oil. That means that the average HISTORICAL fuel price per 1,000kgs should be 5.85 x $2.91 = $17.03 x 1.3 = $22.13. We are FOUR times that now.

Sources: http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp, http://www.airlines.org/Pages/Annual-Crude-Oil-and-Jet-Fuel-Prices.aspx

Edit 2: This would be the equivalent of fuel prices hitting ~$4500/1,000kgs during the height of the 2008 fuel spike. Not many survivors in that scenario...
« Last Edit: January 02, 2013, 03:07:42 AM by JetWestInc »
Co-Founder Elite Worldwide Alliance
CEO PacAir
Designated "Tier 1 Opponent"

Offline [SC] - King Kong

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2013, 08:33:05 AM »
I'm still having a very healthy profit. And I have 30 idle planes on the ground. Stop crying and build a better airline!

Offline ZombieSlayer

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2013, 02:38:13 PM »
I'm still having a very healthy profit. And I have 30 idle planes on the ground. Stop crying and build a better airline!

I am still running on a healthy margin myself. Simply pointing out that, while some peaks and valleys are expected in fuel prices in AWS, the $88/1,000kgs fuel is going for now is simply absurd and causing more damage to the scenario than a run of the mill fuel spike should. If anything, this is costing Sami money because 8 years into the scenario and we are barley half full already. Airlines are dropping like flies and it is because of the insane fuel prices.
Co-Founder Elite Worldwide Alliance
CEO PacAir
Designated "Tier 1 Opponent"

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2013, 03:11:24 PM »
People alone with three or fewer types at major airports running 75%+ load factors shouldn't be going bk.   If the sim is changing to where we have to micromanage each route, then sign me up for beginniers games from now on

brique

  • Former member
Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2013, 07:04:14 PM »
I am still running on a healthy margin myself. Simply pointing out that, while some peaks and valleys are expected in fuel prices in AWS, the $88/1,000kgs fuel is going for now is simply absurd and causing more damage to the scenario than a run of the mill fuel spike should. If anything, this is costing Sami money because 8 years into the scenario and we are barley half full already. Airlines are dropping like flies and it is because of the insane fuel prices.


Actually sounds like a good time to join this game then : big major-airport based airlines bk-ing = nice homes for new players and lots of fine aircraft on the markets, and the choice to fleet-up with the more fuel-efficient types from day one...

Offline Captim

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2013, 07:54:38 PM »
Yep, the fecklass should always fail...

 :)

Offline Tiberius

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2013, 07:08:50 AM »
Someone on these very forums once said to hedge fuel early and hedge it often.  I've been listening...

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2013, 10:57:03 AM »
We just crossed the 90usd line.

Offline [SC] - King Kong

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2013, 11:11:24 AM »
We just crossed the 90usd line.

Just for you, I hope it goes up to $120

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2013, 01:10:29 PM »
Just for you, I hope it goes up to $120

Trying to take the role of chief antagonist in the forums since someone else is gone ?

If fuel gets to that point, you'll have 50 players in the game total.

DanDantes

  • Former member
Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2013, 02:56:12 PM »
Just for you, I hope it goes up to $120

Hope is not a strategy, u want hope then go to church. Fuel just dropped 20%...

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2013, 03:07:34 PM »
Woo doggie!    Or maybe Sami teases us.  Like in the movie Perfect Storm when they had that glimmer of hope before everyone died.

Offline [SC] - King Kong

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2013, 03:22:29 PM »
Trying to take the role of chief antagonist in the forums since someone else is gone ?

If fuel gets to that point, you'll have 50 players in the game total.

I'm a friendly person, don't worry buddy!
fuel prices are fully random generated or is some evil man sitting behind a computer deciding if it should go up or down?

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2013, 03:26:22 PM »
There's a master file for each game.  Items like inflation rate, pax growth rate and fuel prices are all set before a game starts.   Whether or not it can be changed in or during a game, I don't know. 

brique

  • Former member
Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2013, 03:28:21 PM »
I'm with the 'evil man sitting in front of a computer' scenario... in a bunker, beneath the ice, guarded by heavily armed reindeer...

Offline Laama

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2013, 04:36:04 PM »
I'm with the 'evil man sitting in front of a computer' scenario... in a bunker, beneath the ice, guarded by heavily armed reindeer...
Oh cra* I've been discovered, I'll have to send one of my reindeer to visit you

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2013, 10:31:56 PM »
Someone on these very forums once said to hedge fuel early and hedge it often.  I've been listening...

This is where this strategy comes back to haunt you

Offline Troxartas86

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Re: Painful Fuel Prices
« Reply #19 on: January 11, 2013, 05:05:10 AM »
The only time I have ever been BKed by a slight rise in fuel prices was when I ran 707s in my first crack at DoTM out of Beginners. I've taken serious revenue hits plenty of times, especially in MT but no fuel related BKs. What's all the fuss about?

 

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