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Author Topic: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?  (Read 1939 times)

connect2ashes

  • Former member
Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« on: October 31, 2012, 02:04:50 AM »
Alright... I don't want to sound like I'm whining, but there is a seriously unfair imbalance of demand in the game right now!!  I know these demand levels are supposed to be based on reality, but are you telling me that in 1955/56 internal Japanese ticket demand between numerous different route pairs were 5x to 10x greater than key American routes, like New York-Chicago?  The Japanese airlines are putting dozens and dozens of flights on given routes, and they still have a tonne of surplus demand.  Meanwhile, in the States, we are struggling with apparently one-fifth the amount of air passenger traffic.

The two biggest airlines in the world (BY FAR!!) are both based in Tokyo.  I may not be an expert on the history of air traffic, but I refuse to believe that Japanese airports were doing five to ten times more business than American airports ten years after the end of World War II.

Somebody help me out to understand this a bit better please...

Offline Troxartas86

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2012, 02:55:44 AM »
If you want thin routes, come behind the iron curtain.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2012, 03:11:11 AM »
Like in all gameworlds airlines with short routes are skyrocking at first, while the others will catch up later when they run out of demand. Places are typically Tokyo Haneda, Osaka Itami, Bogota, Honolulu and some others.


Nothing special, nothing to worry about.


And if you have more correct historical data from a serious source, you could post it in the feature request forums. :)

Offline Meicci

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2012, 09:06:19 AM »
Like in all gameworlds airlines with short routes are skyrocking at first, while the others will catch up later when they run out of demand.

Also, airlines in US will start catching those Japanese airlines soon, since larger airports in North America have over three times more slots available..

Offline schlaf

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2012, 09:53:41 AM »
But Tokyo have stuck with 9slots/hour, and have been there for a long time now.. Its really really boring, and I regret that I based in Tokyo. There is absoluty nothing to do right now.. Just wait and wait, and then wait a little bit more..
Will there be more slots sometimes?

connect2ashes

  • Former member
Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 11:04:53 AM »
OK, I get the limitations of the number of slots in Tokyo (it may not be the AWS paradise that it appears to be with having the two largest airlines in the world right now), and I appreciate that things might start changing shortly.

But I am talking about NOW, in 1956, something is very seriously wrong with Tokyo's numbers!!!!!

With all due respect to you, Curse (I know you've been playing a lot longer than I have, and I respect that), it's NOT about long haul vs. short haul routes.  I've looked at the numbers carefully, and I'm talking about comparing apples to apples.  

Let's compare Tokyo against JFK (or "Idlewild" in 1956).  There is MORE demand for flights from Tokyo to LHR (avg. 835 per day) than there is from JFK to LHR (avg. 720 per day)!!

And compare JFK to San Francisco against Tokyo to Dubai.  Both are relatively long-haul routes, but they have similar demands for business class passengers.  (Hard to tell exactly by the graphs, but it appears the Tokyo-Dubai route actually has MORE business class demand).  That is REALLY hard for me to believe, since Dubai didn't build their airport until 1959!!!!!  In 1956, they were still using seaplanes!  (Check out the Wikipedia page for Dubai's airport).  Dubai as a town only got electricity and telephone service in the 1950s, and you're telling me it has more business class air traffic coming in on seaplanes from Tokyo than NY/SF?  Come on!!

Then there's the Tokyo-Sapporo route compared to JFK-Detroit.  Same distance exactly (442NM vs. 441NM).  Japan still rebuilding from the war, while NY was economic capital of the world and Detroit was home to over 50% of the world's automotive industry at the time.  But average demand on the Tokyo-Sapporo route right now is 27 times greater than JFK to Detroit!!!!  Again, COME ON!!!!!  Where are these numbers coming from?!!

The list goes on... more demand from Tokyo to Hiroshima than from JFK to LAX.  Sorry to be crass, but do you know what Hiroshima looked like in 1956?

Again, I am not talking about things to come with the next few years, and I'm not talking about the frustrations of playing in an airport with very few slots.  I am talking about the reality of the absurd demand levels out of Tokyo airport in 1956.  Period.  

Isn't there anyone else who sees these numbers as WAY out of line????

-Frank

(Fair disclosure: until last night (real time), I was flying out of Detroit, and I bankrupted myself to try to figure out a better location... at this point, I've tried three spots, and I feel like I've now missed the boat on being competitive in this game... I know sticking it out in Detroit might have been the best strategy, but that's besides the point!)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 11:08:48 AM by Frank Abagnale Jr. »

miln0039

  • Former member
Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 12:11:41 PM »
Lots of stuff including pointing out some historical inaccuracies (Dubai).

I have to agree. The model doesn't seem correct, I know it is hard to model retrospectively - but it does just seem plane (sic... ;)) wrong in some places!!

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 12:20:16 PM »
The reason for the discepancies is because that the game doesn't use realistic data for every single year to generate its numbers. Finding that data would be extremely difficult, and extremely time-consuming. The game uses realistic data from a single year, and scales it up & down as the calendar moves forwards & backwards.

As for missing the boat with being competitive, all you need to do is pay a little more attention when you pick an airport. There are still plenty out there with heaps of scope for building any sort of airline, including a huge one. I noticed you open briefly in Tokyo, which was just a waste of one of your BKs, given it was already out of slots.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 12:20:21 PM »
As far as I know sami's figures are from 2002 or so and he made some fancy formula to fit it earlier and later.

I'm absolutely sure he will appreciate if you can post him serious numbers (e.g. not wikipedia) about airports and route demand.


Also I'm not very into real life aviation. I just can talk about AirwaySim and how things are in this game and, up to a certain point, why it is like it is.



At the end of the day the airports are more or less balanced and that's what is important in a game.


Personally I'm waiting for dynamic city based demand and growth, so all this "in reality it is xy" comparisons stop. ;)

connect2ashes

  • Former member
Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 12:55:13 PM »
As far as I know sami's figures are from 2002 or so and he made some fancy formula to fit it earlier and later.

I'm absolutely sure he will appreciate if you can post him serious numbers (e.g. not wikipedia) about airports and route demand.

Also I'm not very into real life aviation. I just can talk about AirwaySim and how things are in this game and, up to a certain point, why it is like it is.

At the end of the day the airports are more or less balanced and that's what is important in a game.

Personally I'm waiting for dynamic city based demand and growth, so all this "in reality it is xy" comparisons stop. ;)

I TOTALLY agree in the sense that I don't necessarily need everything to look exactly like it is in real life.  I TOTALLY agree with the idea of balancing airports.  In fact, I would personally support the major airports all being relatively even in demand worldwide. 

My point is that Tokyo is radically out of demand proportion.  I have no source of numbers to quote, and I only use the historic "XY" argument to say that it is NOT accurate to argue that Tokyo SHOULD be greater in demand.  I would be completely fine if it were the SAME.  In other words, it would be great if Tokyo-Sapporo had roughly the same demand as New York-Detroit.  I'm not an expert either, but I don't think it really probably did, but that's okay.  The same level would be fine.  I just don't like Tokyo-Sapporo having TWENTY-SEVEN TIMES more demand than New York-Detroit!!!!  It makes no sense, backward designed model or not. 

Looking at the rest of the demand figures worldwide, the logic of the demand seems to work to my mind.  Everywhere except Tokyo!  I just think something must be wrong with the numbers in that one airport's demand figures (like by a multiple of 10 or something!) 

I am new, and I'm not suggesting my own methods are perfect (yes, I did blunder by re-opening briefly in Tokyo before realizing all their slots were gone), but there are other airlines run by experienced players flying out of other major airports that have come out of the gate with roughly the same methods as the two game leaders, yet they have one-fifth the number of passengers so far.  Forget history, that's fine... I just don't like that one airport in the world seems to have demand numbers that are much higher than any others.  Since the argument for that cannot be historical, what is it?

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 01:16:41 PM »
Tokyo Haneda has by far not the highest demand ingame.

I told you already some airports with relatively huge demand nearby always skyrocket at gameworld start. Those airports run out of easy accessible demand fast (Honolulu, Bogota) or run into a slot problem (Tokyo Haneda, Osaka Itami) and later encounter the PAX limit.



So, I can only speak for ingame things, but Haneda isn't the uberkiller airport. I based there once and it was nothing special, possible to make a solid #1, but honestly I prefer the US for doing so.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2012, 01:17:22 PM »
I think it has to do with later openings of today HUGE airports like Narita,Idlewild/JFK and Newark. Traffic data really look different before and after, also usage of airports for mainly SH or LH traffic before and after. Think of all complaints rising after Narita opening, when whole traffic is diverted. So game is based on those later high numbers, putting them all together, when there is only one airport for all traffic.
Also think of game is based on a free market system everywhere, even for the 50ies, when there was no "market" in aviation at all. Everything was regulated by gouvernments, even most airlines were "national" , run and controlled by gouvernments. International traffic was controlled by treaties. So this era is bound to be the most "unrealistic".

« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 01:39:07 PM by exchlbg »

connect2ashes

  • Former member
Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2012, 01:37:10 PM »
Tokyo Haneda has by far not the highest demand ingame.

I told you already some airports with relatively huge demand nearby always skyrocket at gameworld start. Those airports run out of easy accessible demand fast (Honolulu, Bogota) or run into a slot problem (Tokyo Haneda, Osaka Itami) and later encounter the PAX limit.

So, I can only speak for ingame things, but Haneda isn't the uberkiller airport. I based there once and it was nothing special, possible to make a solid #1, but honestly I prefer the US for doing so.

OK... I'm still not convinced, but as I said before, I am sincere in saying I genuinely respect your experience.  I will hunt for another airport to base at, and then we'll see how this plays out over time. 

And even if I'm not sold on there not being a problem with Tokyo's demand, I still appreciate the responses that you and others have taken the time to give here.

Cheers,
Frank

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2012, 02:02:37 PM »
Catch frank if you can...  In aside the real frank abignale came and gave a speech to my business clients about banking fraud and ways to protect themselves in the modern cyber crime era.   Brilliant dude.


connect2ashes

  • Former member
Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2012, 02:04:54 PM »
Catch frank if you can...  In aside the real frank abignale came and gave a speech to my business clients about banking fraud and ways to protect themselves in the modern cyber crime era.   Brilliant dude.



Damn... I'm super-jealous on that one!!

(Guess my cover is blown, eh?)

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2012, 04:11:38 PM »
I TOTALLY agree in the sense that I don't necessarily need everything to look exactly like it is in real life.  I TOTALLY agree with the idea of balancing airports.  In fact, I would personally support the major airports all being relatively even in demand worldwide.  

My point is that Tokyo is radically out of demand proportion.  I have no source of numbers to quote, and I only use the historic "XY" argument to say that it is NOT accurate to argue that Tokyo SHOULD be greater in demand.  I would be completely fine if it were the SAME.  In other words, it would be great if Tokyo-Sapporo had roughly the same demand as New York-Detroit.  I'm not an expert either, but I don't think it really probably did, but that's okay.  The same level would be fine.  I just don't like Tokyo-Sapporo having TWENTY-SEVEN TIMES more demand than New York-Detroit!!!!  It makes no sense, backward designed model or not.  

Looking at the rest of the demand figures worldwide, the logic of the demand seems to work to my mind.  Everywhere except Tokyo!  I just think something must be wrong with the numbers in that one airport's demand figures (like by a multiple of 10 or something!)  

I am new, and I'm not suggesting my own methods are perfect (yes, I did blunder by re-opening briefly in Tokyo before realizing all their slots were gone), but there are other airlines run by experienced players flying out of other major airports that have come out of the gate with roughly the same methods as the two game leaders, yet they have one-fifth the number of passengers so far.  Forget history, that's fine... I just don't like that one airport in the world seems to have demand numbers that are much higher than any others.  Since the argument for that cannot be historical, what is it?

Look at the stats page, and go to the airport link. Tokyo is already behind 2 of the biggest US airports in terms of total pax. Tokyo has a few huge routes, but there are less than 40 airports worth flying to inside of 1000 NM (and 80% of them are closed for 10 hours/day.  >:(). A big US airport (ORD, ATL, JFK, etc) doesn't have any of those huge routes, but has far more places to fly to. Also, when your RI & CI are low, you'll only be noticed by maybe 20% of the available pax. On a 200 pax route out of ATL (of which there are planty), that means 40 pax, and a half-full plane. On a 2k pax route out of Tokyo, you can get your planes nearly full from the start. End result is that people starting aggressively in Tokyo (or Sydney once Tullamarine opens, or a couple of other places) will get off to a very fast start. And it's even more pronounced in JA.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 04:14:16 PM by Sanabas »

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2012, 09:21:46 PM »
And cue the first whinge about the other issue with airports like this. If one person is online when slots finally appear, and one person isn't, then one person gets a 50% jump in number of flights/pax/revenue, and one person doesn't.   :P

Offline schlaf

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2012, 09:36:01 PM »
Yeah i know, it a little bit boring when it depends on just to be luck to be online or not..
Next time its maybe the opposite, well I really hope not, but maybe=)

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2012, 09:47:21 PM »
Yep.

Stockpile planes and cross your fingers you're online at the right time. As long as both of us remain decent players, and don't BK out of boredom, it'll likely be this way for the next 30 years of the game. At our bases too, I expect. Samurai/Hakata/Dynda air might be in for a surprise when 18 months rolls around.

Currently keeping myself entertained using all those spare planes to fly LH. I think the virtual pax are crazy wanting to jam themselves into a DC-6 for 24 hours straight.


What does happen when Narita opens? Are automatically moved, or do we remain in the new, all-domestic Haneda?

Offline schlaf

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Re: Serious Problem with the Asian Demand?
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2012, 09:56:25 PM »
I think the virtual pax are crazy wanting to jam themselves into a DC-6 for 24 hours straight.

LOL!!!

I have no idee whats happen when Narita will open. Never played this gameworld before, just stucked to ModernTimes for quite some years now..

I miss USA, almost always played there, a lot more action than in Tokyo.. So next JetAge you can have Tokyo for your self ;D, Im leaving!!

It will be quite fun to grow up and become a 18month old airline this time, I think=)

 

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