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Author Topic: Fuel spike  (Read 3981 times)

Offline pascaly

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Fuel spike
« on: September 10, 2012, 03:33:06 AM »
Loving that fuel is up so high (for those of you playing in MT, it's just hit $150!!!)

It's more than doubled in about a year. As I believe Eddie Hitler said; "Steep? That's effing vertical!"

 :laugh:

Offline AndiD

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2012, 11:50:44 AM »
... and I was just wondering why I am the last person in the world to fly Comets...

Low-density routes east coast -> Europe; the planes still make 50-100k per week, so probably break-even effectively. And nothing really available to replace them with until the 757 arrives...

Offline Boot

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2012, 12:35:18 PM »
so what's wrong with 727-200Adv?

Offline EsquireFlyer

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2012, 03:55:20 PM »
so what's wrong with 727-200Adv?

Probably the fact that they run out of fuel before reaching Europe. You can get from Boston to Shannon but no further, without dramatically reducing your seating capacity, and even then it would be tough to get beyond the U.K. Unless you add techstops.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2012, 03:57:22 PM by EsquireFlyer »

Offline EsquireFlyer

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2012, 03:55:43 PM »
Low-density routes east coast -> Europe; the planes still make 50-100k per week, so probably break-even effectively. And nothing really available to replace them with until the 757 arrives...

Concorde!  :laugh:

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2012, 07:18:23 PM »
Long thin routes make no sense until maybe 757 and 787 time, but only if fuel is cheap.

Offline AndiD

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2012, 10:05:45 PM »
Across the pond they were nicely profitable up until now as long as the planes were decently full (including C) and the fuel price behaved. In terms of fuel economy they're not worse than the turbojet 707s or early DC-8s.

I was regularly in the top 10-20s in terms of profitability throughout the years, even without 721s and before 732s with an all-Comet full US domestic (for routes > 500 nm) and intercontinental service to the top European aiports from KBWI (single base). My top workhorse was retired just shy of 100k flight hours. Some of the newer models still flying might surpass it. (Will keep the routes open, even when making losses, and through second D checks, I have more liquid money atm than I ever gonna need.)

So long thin routes indeed make sense till the mid 70s, when fuel moves toward the $60 marker, you just need the right plane...

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2012, 10:08:35 PM »
This might change with the new formula, when people are more sensitive about small planes and fuel stops.

Offline EsquireFlyer

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2012, 01:11:08 AM »
This might change with the new formula, when people are more sensitive about small planes and fuel stops.

Yes. Techstopping 727s and non-ETOPS-certified 737s across oceans is ridiculous, especially on routes with high demand, and fortunately, the pax in the new game engine finally recognize it. If the route is way too small to support a widebody, then maybe. But it should be the exception rather than the rule, and not a standard practice.

The old game engine baffles me. Pax don't care about flight time, fuel stops, or or even price...all they care about is frequency?!

Online PH1517

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2012, 04:50:11 AM »
This is by far the worst fuel spike I've seen in JA.  At $179 it's actually almost the same price as in DOTM circa 1991  :o . But problem is there is only the DC8 for longhauls (+4000 nm) under 200pax which accounts for at least 3/4 of my market. 

So I know fuel prices are custom, why not make plane deliveries custom too?!  I need 767-200ER's now. :laugh:



 

Offline AndiD

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2012, 05:38:23 AM »
This might change with the new formula, when people are more sensitive about small planes and fuel stops.

Think it won't change for long, thin routes, when there is less demand than it would need to fill a larger plane. I am happily flying 90 seat jets across Canada in the NA challenge on 80 pax demand routes and they are full.

This is by far the worst fuel spike I've seen in JA.  At $179 it's actually almost the same price as in DOTM circa 1991  :o . But problem is there is only the DC8 for longhauls (+4000 nm) under 200pax which accounts for at least 3/4 of my market. 

Technically, there is the VC10 as well - problem is, they all burn 7000+ kg/hr - similar to the much larger DC-10s and L1011s. Or you could revert to 15yo Bristol Britannias and Lockheed Starliners... :D
« Last Edit: September 12, 2012, 05:43:25 AM by AndiD »

Online PH1517

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2012, 06:33:03 AM »


Technically, there is the VC10 as well - problem is, they all burn 7000+ kg/hr - similar to the much larger DC-10s and L1011s. Or you could revert to 15yo Bristol Britannias and Lockheed Starliners... :D

hmmm... a propeller plane on my JNB-JFK, that would interesting  :laugh:  too bad for my pax though.  Closest would be the VC-10 but with a tech stop but that would annul the savings.  I will be trying a 220 premium seating pax DC-10s to replace my DC-8.  That would save me on fuel and definitely would hurt my competition and also would give a longer range.  Only hitch is the turnaround time but I assume the savings on the fuel is a much higher advantage at this point. 

Offline EsquireFlyer

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2012, 07:39:28 AM »
This is by far the worst fuel spike I've seen in JA.  At $179 it's actually almost the same price as in DOTM circa 1991  :o . But problem is there is only the DC8 for longhauls (+4000 nm) under 200pax which accounts for at least 3/4 of my market.  
 

You can use the DC-10. Even though you don't need the extra capacity, it burns less fuel than a DC-8 does, to carry more pax (or the same pax, if you can't fill the plane). Still cheaper fuel wise than flying a DC-8.

Also, at this point, to deal with fuel, you are flying the DC-8-62s and -63s, right? Those should still be OK. But the -50s won't do so well, and the -40s and earlier will get killed.

Offline Boot

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2012, 07:49:13 AM »
Probably the fact that they run out of fuel before reaching Europe. You can get from Boston to Shannon but no further, without dramatically reducing your seating capacity, and even then it would be tough to get beyond the U.K. Unless you add techstops.
The longest range Comets in used markets have 2700-2800NM range, I'm assuming that it's their limit. 727-200Adv can do ~2650NM with the same amount of pax as Comet with considerably less fuel.
So question stands - what's wrong with 727-200Adv? is that 150NM difference in range so crucial?

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2012, 11:11:59 AM »
Especially under new game formula PAX donīt like flying long routes on small planes, so you wonīt get them all or have to lower prices.
Generally you have to control carefully, if those small planes on long routes are really profitable, if you count in all overhead costs. You can happily go under with full planes, if those few pax hardly pay off for fuel.

Offline AndiD

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2012, 05:44:54 PM »
The longest range Comets in used markets have 2700-2800NM range, I'm assuming that it's their limit. 727-200Adv can do ~2650NM with the same amount of pax as Comet with considerably less fuel.
So question stands - what's wrong with 727-200Adv? is that 150NM difference in range so crucial?

You're right - must've missed that one when it was announced. I noticed the 722 and discarded it for having no range, so I probably didn't bother checking when the 722 Adv. was announced. Or it was while I was on a longer trip at the beginning auf August. I can change routes nearly seamlessly. Now do I want to bother...?

Anyway, this was in the mail today:

Quote
Used Aircraft Center

United Aircraft Brokers has purchased your de Havilland DH.106 Comet 4C aircraft with a sum of 6 095 000 USD. The aircraft has now left your fleet and is now flying with the new owner.

Thank you for using our services.

 ;D

Offline pascaly

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2012, 01:31:43 AM »
If you sell it, they will buy  ;D

Offline Boot

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2012, 12:08:15 PM »
Anybody know why did Asianair go BK?
Too bad that you can see any information about airline after BK...

Offline pascaly

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Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2012, 09:35:32 PM »
Not sure Boot, but that was a big one. Didn't see their specifics before they BK'd, so not sure if it was fleet-related.

omaster

  • Former member
Re: Fuel spike
« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2012, 09:51:49 PM »
Loving the fuel spike. Maintaining similar profitability but that is with an increased fleet. Meanwhile I can see it hurting my competitors. :D

 

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