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Author Topic: Fuel costs on the rise  (Read 6699 times)

brique

  • Former member
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2012, 06:26:39 AM »
back on topic : enough of this ice-bound volcano : fuel prices!

Having consulted our shamans, at great cost and no little health risk, Shotgun Airways has noted the welcome fall in fuel prices below the $300 mark, congratulated itself on not panicking when it was heading towards $400, and has now decided to strike while the going is good with a 50% hedge at $288 for the next 12 months.

Why not 100%, you may ask..well, goats entrails can be tricky things to read, and as the habit of our local shamans is to imbibe vast quantities of allegedly narcotic brews, so their predictions can vary from : 'Fuel will rise big-time!' to 'Wow, I can see purple unicorns dancing the lambada!' , well, some caution is necessary :-\

Offline Troxartas86

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2012, 06:48:33 AM »
I just drink too much rum and flip a coin. I can see the benefit of reading goat entrails though.

brique

  • Former member
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2012, 07:47:24 AM »
I just drink too much rum and flip a coin. I can see the benefit of reading goat entrails though.

They drink too much skunk beer and flip a goat : not much different really... :))

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2012, 12:51:08 PM »
I slaughtered the wrong goat, and so got dodgy entrails.

brique

  • Former member
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2012, 01:46:04 PM »
It happens, next time, slaughter the shaman and get the goat to read their entrails...

Offline Frogiton

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2012, 05:34:41 AM »
Dang fuel! Stop bluffing. Just go up already!  :laugh:
No replacement for displacement

Offline ehcydotcom

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  • Posts: 58
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2012, 03:13:12 AM »
Is this the best time to hedge now?

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #27 on: August 26, 2012, 03:20:13 AM »
I'd hedge 100% now, for sure. Worst case you get what I posted above, and still pay ok prices while everybody else gets a bargain.

Offline EsquireFlyer

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  • Posts: 1327
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #28 on: August 26, 2012, 04:34:54 AM »
I would hedge only about 10%-20% now, and then 10% or so per month for the next 10 months.

I don't see the point of a 100% all-in hedge unless you are SURE fuel will never go any lower (and really, when can you be sure of that), and it exposes you to the possibility for error illustrated above.

If you hedge 10% per month for 10 months rolling, you will still be protected from unexpected huge spikes. Becuase you will pay an average price, you will not get the best possible price during the 10 month period, but you also know that you will not be stuck with the worst posisble price.

Of course, if you see a huge dip, you can hedge 20% or 30% that month instead (as long as you can accept the risk that fuel may dip even lower, putting your hedge out of the money if you hedged "on the way down" instad of near the bottom). But I still wouldn't do a 100% hedge just on an apparent dip.

brique

  • Former member
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #29 on: August 26, 2012, 07:44:24 AM »
Once more Shotgun Airways has called in its crack team of shamans, goat-herders and b-b-q chefs in the search for the secret knowledge we all desire : when to hedge.

The shamanic consensus is that the price has some way to fall yet and the figure of 310-320 was oft-mentioned as being 'sort of near the mark'. The one dissenting shamanic voice was Crazy Eddie who managed no more than a loud 'We are all doomed!' before he fell off his chair and slept the rest of the day.

The b-b-q chefs agreed with the consensus, also congratulating the CEO brique on providing such fine healthy goats and an excellent vintage of robust red to wash them down.

The goat-herders had no opinion, no wine, at the end, no goats. Sheesh, they a grumpy bunch :(

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #30 on: August 26, 2012, 10:54:14 AM »
I'm with Crazy Eddie.

Offline Airbus101

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2012, 12:27:44 AM »
+1 that would be AWSOME....

I hope that Icelandic volcano is in : just to give the EU flyers some headaches!

Offline ehcydotcom

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2012, 09:45:22 AM »
I'm waiting it to come down near $300 but it's look like impossible for short term. Anyone think its a good time to hedge now?

mean123

  • Former member
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #33 on: August 28, 2012, 11:24:20 AM »
I hedged at the perfect time this time last year at $288 but only hedged 50%, wish i done a 100%. The contract runs out next week too  :(

Offline ehcydotcom

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #34 on: August 30, 2012, 05:23:14 AM »
Fuel price has gone up near $400 now.

Offline ehcydotcom

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #35 on: September 01, 2012, 06:47:13 AM »
Anyone on position of hedge now? And at what price?

cturner9953

  • Former member
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #36 on: September 01, 2012, 10:41:31 AM »
down it comes. hegde 50% now.  ; :)

Offline Infinity

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    • Aviation Awareness
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #37 on: September 01, 2012, 10:59:16 AM »
I'd hedge 100% now. Can't unfortunately, paying 20$ over right now.

CROSS

  • Former member
Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2012, 11:14:17 PM »
Are fuel costs modelled somewhat after real world (meaning tending upwards over time) or is it random each game?

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Fuel costs on the rise
« Reply #39 on: September 01, 2012, 11:15:43 PM »
Are fuel costs modelled somewhat after real world (meaning tending upwards over time) or is it random each game?

Each world is different (see the page where you select game).  MT7 and most other games are random, but some are real world.

 

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