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Author Topic: Route Oversupply Warning???  (Read 881 times)

Offline ChuckPerry

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Route Oversupply Warning???
« on: July 27, 2012, 08:59:58 PM »
Okay- this is a new one for me.. I'm getting this warning on my MSY-HOU routes..



Subject:    Anti Monopoly Bureau: Route closure warning - Oversupply
Time:    22-Jun-1995
Notification from the Anti Monopoly Bureau,

The Game Rules state that airline is not allowed to oversupply routes with excess seat capacity to allow fair competition. The automatic checking system has found some of your routes to be in violation of these rules (you provide too much capacity on the routes, and are exceeding the limits set forth in the rules).

Please check these routes and reduce their capacity immediately so that they are no longer oversupplied against the rules. If changes are not made within 48 hours the system will close down these routes.


Routes in violation of the rules:
XS019, KHOU - KMSY   
XS045, KHOU - KMSY   
XS059, KHOU - KMSY   

Please be aware that oversupplying a route is forbidden in the game rules and airlines violating the rules may be penalized.

I have an all A-320 fleet and i'm flying two flights per day on days where the demand is 200 pax or greater.....so does this mean that I can only fly 1 flight a day MSY-HOU in order to stay below the 200-250 pax per day average??  When did this start? I've seen other airlines way oversupply certain routes... Thanks for the help... CHuck

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2012, 09:03:33 PM »
check both directions... you may be flying one way 3x daily...

You can never have 2x demand unless its 1 flight per day or less.   That's the rule.

EDIT:  never mind...  Your problem is obvious as you're the only one flying this route.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 09:05:46 PM by swiftus27 »

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2012, 09:09:50 PM »
EDIT:  never mind...  Your problem is obvious as you're the only one flying this route.

Okay-- in layman's terms ??? 

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2012, 09:13:03 PM »


General information    Passenger demand
Route type    Domestic    Estimate    6100 passengers / month
200 passengers / day
Distance    262 NM (485 km)    Analysis   This route has a mediocre passenger demand.
Quick links
 Airport information, KMSY
 Airport information, KHOU
 Airport slots, KMSY
 Airport slots, KHOU
 Open new route
 Price management
Estimated daily passenger demand

Estimated accuracy: ~95%
Airline market share    Route map

Map data 2012 Google, INEGI - Terms of Use
Airlines on this route
Days    Flight #    Dep    Arr    Aircraft    Airline    
---4---   XS059    1155    1315    A320   Southern Express   
1--45--   XS045    1640    1800    A320   Southern Express   
1---5--   XS061    2100    2220    A320   Southern Express   
-23--67   XS019    2155    2315    A320   Southern Express   
 Select another route
Route planning KHOU - KMSY

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2012, 09:14:20 PM »
you can NOT fly 2x the demand for a route

So, if demand = 100
then 100 x 2 = 200
If you supply 201 or more seats to this route, you will get this warning UNLESS you're only flying that route one time per day.

So, 2x A320s = bad
1x 744d = okay (but really stupid)

If 215 demand, 430 = max.   468 is what you are supplying

468 > 430
« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 09:16:58 PM by swiftus27 »

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2012, 09:18:03 PM »
Ohhhh. Okay.. Thanks... I never knew that..

Offline Sami

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Offline swiftus27

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2012, 09:19:39 PM »
Ohhhh. Okay.. Thanks... I never knew that..

Fine and dandy, but why are you ridiculously oversupplying a route with no competition?

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2012, 09:23:49 PM »
Okay- if the demand is 200 pax per day and I fly 2 flights per day that's 312 pax per day.. 88 pax below the limit of 400... right???  So why am i getting this message?

Offline ZombieSlayer

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2012, 09:31:53 PM »
Okay- if the demand is 200 pax per day and I fly 2 flights per day that's 312 pax per day.. 88 pax below the limit of 400... right???  So why am i getting this message?

Because you are not offering 312 pax a day, but rather 468 which is 3x a day on Monday and Thursday. In the schedule posted below, though, it only shows 2 daily flights on Monday and Thursday. Is there anything missing from that schedule or is there a bug of some sort creating the third flights on those days?
Co-Founder Elite Worldwide Alliance
CEO PacAir
Designated "Tier 1 Opponent"

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2012, 09:37:42 PM »
No, the schedule is correct.. I'm flying 2 round trips on Monday, Thursday and Fridays.. 1 R/T the other days of the week.. The chart you posted doesn't even show me flying any flights on Tuesday or Saturday.. it's like it took them and added them to Monday and Thursday??? 

Offline Sanabas

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2012, 09:42:16 PM »
The problem is the return flights.

Based on the schedule you posted earlier, you have 2 monday, 2 thursday, 2 friday that return the same day.
You have tues, wed, sat, sun flights, but all of those actually return THE NEXT DAY. - This is the important bit. What that means is on the return flight, on Thursday and Monday, You actually have 3 flights. The two normal Thursday flights, plus the Wednesday flight which returns just after midnight on Thursday morning. You can see that in the pic swiftus posted.

That's why you're getting the oversupply warning.

*edit* And yeah, you don't have any return flights on Tuesday or Saturday. Because Tuesday's single outbound flight actually returns on Wednesday.

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2012, 09:42:45 PM »
Let's count the flights....

Folks, how many #4s do you see?  

Do you know what day #4 is in AWS?

So, if we fly 3 planes with 156 seats on board each day, how many people can we fly?

If demand is only 218 people, is 468 more than 2x 218?
« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 09:46:39 PM by swiftus27 »

Offline Sami

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2012, 09:43:30 PM »
Once again, see THE MESSAGE the system sent you.

There are direct links (globe icon) to route planning views of THAT route segment that is the problem, and against the rules. You can see the problem there directly, and it was posted here as an image/screenshot too.

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2012, 09:48:40 PM »
You're fine on the other direction.  It is the fact that you flew past midnight.

and because you did, you have 3 landings in one day.  

ONE AMAZING RULE OF THUMB.  NEVER TAKE OFF AT 2300 OR LATER AND LAND BEFORE 0500.  THOSE ARE LOCAL TIMES.   Taking off at 2310 and landing at 0030 violates both.  Unless you're flying super premium seating for 50% the expected prices, I wouldn't expect many people 'catching the last bus home from Nawlins'


Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: Route Oversupply Warning???
« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2012, 09:50:45 PM »
Thats what threw me.. I see it now.. Thanks for your patience.. I'm still learning..

 

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