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Author Topic: Demand Drop  (Read 1105 times)

Offline Jetsetter

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Demand Drop
« on: January 31, 2012, 01:41:46 PM »
So I'm guessing the inexplicable decrease of 80,000 passengers and the 60 or so million my airline bled from last night to this morning was the demand drop. How long until it gets back up?

Offline Wing Commander Chad Studdington

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Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2012, 01:47:49 PM »
Not sure but check the date...

Offline ArcherII

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Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2012, 01:50:56 PM »
11-S dropm

Offline Infinity

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    • Aviation Awareness
Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2012, 11:17:07 AM »
I would be really interested in the duration of this effect.
Any experiences from other scenarios? The combination of this huge demand drop and record fuel prices is really ungrateful.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2012, 04:56:38 PM »
I would be really interested in the duration of this effect.
Any experiences from other scenarios? The combination of this huge demand drop and record fuel prices is really ungrateful.

Previous MT scenarios started after 9/11, as far as I remember, so possibly, the current 2001 demand was the starting point.  I have no idea what the demand recovery will be like (fast or slow)...

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2012, 05:00:48 PM »
I just BK'd my 300+ aircraft airline out of KSFO.  The demand drop and fuel price combination was brutal.  I had 6000nm international routes with 40% demand drops.  Unless you own your aircraft or are flying 200+ seaters with 75%+ load factors, its going to be a very rough ride.

As far as duration, it's going to be a gradual increase over the next decade--don't expect to see those 80,000 pax come back overnight.  Previous MT scenarios started in 2000 so the 9/11 effect was hardly noticeable as everyone was just starting out and the fuel spike 5 years into the scenario happened in 2005, so you didn't have the 1-2 punch we have now.

Offline Jetsetter

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Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2012, 08:50:59 PM »
Yeah I'm pretty concerned how long I can hold out like this. My loadfactors aren't particularly good looking, and I've been noticing some 100+ fleet airlines going down in the last few days.

vitongwangki

  • Former member
Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2012, 05:33:23 AM »
The situation is very hard compared with previous game. However I can still see quite a lot of airlines still surviving despite massive Bankruptcy in US. Survivors, keep it on, the game will be easier later for new companies to restart  ;)

Nlgravity

  • Former member
Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2012, 06:56:24 AM »
This period is the turning point of the game world (both in a good and bad way). I will put it in the context of a bedside story your mom used to tell you before bed:

The Piggy that made the airline out of straw:
- If you couldnt resist the urge to make your route map as "yellowy" as possible, like a giant octopus spreading accross all corners of the world, and have 5+ fleet types of fuel hungry antiques....... then this is the turning point in which you turn from "XYZ airlines orders 10 DC10" to "The bank has closed XYZ airlines".... sorry about that  :-[ 

The piggy that made the airline out of wood:
- If you have a "solid" airline with 1 or 2 fleet types comprised of 100% leases and 0% ownership..... you are probably still standing. But just for a few more months. But you WILL BK sooner than later.... why? because if you dont own any planes that are unlpedged as collateral, you are missing the magical "get out of C check trouble card" or "sell plane to pay bank card, do not pass go, do not collect 200". Solid airlines should be targeting these guys instead f another solid opponent.

The piggy that made the airline out of Brick:
This piggy is lounging on the couch watching the news about airlines going bust with a slight grim. This piggy says "Honey, pour me another glass of Blue Label and call my broker to transfer funds to Eagle Aircraf to buy all these new planes left behind from today's tragic BK"  ;)
When you own planes (not all, just the liquid ones) you are in a turning point: big competition turns into NO competition..... and you have plenty of used planes to target all these lonely passengers camping out at the airport terminal.

What's the point of all these stuff Im writing... you should ask? Well, next time you start a game world, become the piggy that builds the airline out of bricks. If that entails falling behind your competitor's straw airline momentarily.... then that is ok. Just as long as you have a solid balance sheet, the rest will come.

I hope you enjoy my story but most important, I hope you learned a valuable lesson. If you are smiling now thinking "this guy is awesome" you probably run a brick airline (but keep it away from SAEZ, I will turn it into straw very quickly).
And if you are thinking "this guy is a complete ass" then Im probably watching you on the news as I sip my Blue Label.. :P :P :P :P
 

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2012, 07:20:19 AM »
When you own planes (not all, just the liquid ones) you are in a turning point...

That's a point a lot of players miss.  When you own an aircraft, and there are 20 of the same aircraft on the market for lease by brokers, nobody is ging to buy your aircraft in time of trouble...

vitongwangki

  • Former member
Re: Demand Drop
« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2012, 08:10:28 AM »
That's a point a lot of players miss.  When you own an aircraft, and there are 20 of the same aircraft on the market for lease by brokers, nobody is ging to buy your aircraft in time of trouble...
And rare to see players got a plan to own their planes to improve its profit margin, certainly owning (right)planes makes the difference.

 

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