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Author Topic: What went wrong?  (Read 1374 times)

cht7520

  • Former member
What went wrong?
« on: August 15, 2011, 03:22:36 PM »
Ok, so what went wrong? I was earning $35m a week at my peak, now I'm about to bankrupt making -$130m a week.

I've stuck with precisely 3 fleet types to make sure I push down my fleet commonality costs.

My fleet includes:
12 x A319
5 x A320
24 x A321

24 x A330-200
20 x A330-300
1 x A340-200
4 x A340-200X
4 x A340-300
8 x A340-300X
10 x A340-600

24 x B777-200
39 x B777-200ER
40 x B777-300

Average fleet age: 5.7 years

Fly to 140 destinations, mainly Long Haul.

Aircraft leases were set to 15 years so I pay the minimum for leases. I reset prices regularly, my 2 main competitors bankrupted (essentially I owned TPE to myself during my peak). So, how did I go under? I followed all the suggestions I could find on the forum and it's not like I built my fleet on fuel-drinking machines. ???

Men

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2011, 03:36:28 PM »
I think leased price of aircraft is murderer  :'(

This is my Boeing 777-300 weekly income.
Sold tickets    1 135 296 USD
Line maintenance (A+B)    -20 184 USD
Insurance    -108 898 USD
Fuel cost    -297 351 USD
Route fees (1)    -124 304 USD
Weekly leasing cost    -652 797 USD
Total    -68 238 USD

Offline Sanabas

  • Members
  • Posts: 2161
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2011, 03:41:37 PM »
Not owning a single plane and being locked into long leases means you have no ability to react to things by selling a plane, getting a loan to raise cash to cover a short term issue, etc.

Didn't you say you run everything at minimum turnaround times? Stats say your departure punctuality is just 44%. I'd be guessing that's what's killed your CI, which has in turn killed your LF and profits.

Also looks like you've opened a second base and stuck maybe 7 planes there. No way do the profits of those 7 planes outweigh the spike in staff costs for the other 200 at your main base. Before you BK, see what your staff cost per month is, close the 2nd base, and see what the new staff cost is. I'm guessing there'll be at least $5 million/week difference.

Offline plasticforks

  • Members
  • Posts: 359
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2011, 03:58:52 PM »
I think you can check that under base airports.

cht7520

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2011, 04:06:40 PM »
My CI was at 91 at peak and punctuality was at ~70% back then (planes are probably in very very bad condition by now, hence the 44%). What killed my CI was not having enough money for C/D checks and now I've got half my fleet grounded. The CI is not the problem as I'm clearly losing money from something else which in turn made me run out of cash and then I couldn't do them checks so my planes get grounded.

The 777s might just have killed me in the end (had 103 of them) but I had to have them to ensure I could expand quicker than my competitors and fly to every destinations flyable from TPE. There was no better alternative that I could grab off the used market. Before everything went bad I even started Taipei-Cancun/Havana.

I opened that second base because there was a quite incredible amount of demand not served there. Couldn't add more planes as I was cash strapped by then.

I had them locked into 15 year leases because I never thought I would ever need to replace a new (or new-ish) A330 or 777 during the rest of the time in the game. Therefore I could use the money to grab more planes off the used market.

Oh well...the only way my airline might survive next time in MT6 is probably using only 2 fleet types...

Offline Sami

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  • Posts: 14544
    • AirwaySim - Are you the next Richard Branson?
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2011, 04:57:41 PM »
Have not looked at the airline but keep in mind that lease costs for popular planes can be high. And running a 100-strong (incl longhaul) airline based only on leases (of new planes) can be very hard.

Online schro

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  • Posts: 3083
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2011, 05:37:50 PM »
Capital cost of long haul planes is quite high compared to shorter range equivilants. You can get a pair of 757s for the same price as a 767, or three 757s for a single A330.

When you combine those lease costs with long haul flying (especially over 5000nm) and the normal path of fuel for an MT scenario, it leads to a good number of spectacular bankruptcies like yours at this stage in the game.

Long haul with leased jumbo jets tends to work best in earlier scenarios, such as Jet Age, DOTM and ATB (sort of). It makes for a rather boring game in DOTM where I haven't observed any spectacular bankruptcies.....

Offline mark320

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  • Posts: 101
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2011, 06:48:13 PM »
Actually, IMHO the issue i see is your ticket income is relatively low. I am earning more than that on A321s. However, lease rates are astronomical in this game. A B-77W should cost not more than $1.3M a month, half what you were paying, and it's not even an ER! Most airlines lease aircraft or sell and lease back, there are many advantages to this. With such lease rates, one starts to wonder.
If I want to cancel a lease, or buy a leased aircraft the rate is still too high. Discounts on airliners is more in the order of 40-25% than a miserly 3% after I spend $200M in lease deposits!
It would be nice if this realism are incorporated.

regards,

cht7520

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2011, 06:59:45 PM »
Thanks for the advice guys. Not leasing so many planes next time :P

Actually, IMHO the issue i see is your ticket income is relatively low.

That's because half my fleet are grounded :P . It was something like 3 500 000 000 before I went under.

cht7520

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2011, 07:03:56 PM »
Have not looked at the airline but keep in mind that lease costs for popular planes can be high. And running a 100-strong (incl longhaul) airline based only on leases (of new planes) can be very hard.

Probably why then...most of those 777-300s were new.

BTW, whatever was done on the C/F prices made it much harder. So...whatever the purpose of that is, it works!

Offline mark320

  • Members
  • Posts: 101
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2011, 07:24:19 PM »
Thanks for the advice guys. Not leasing so many planes next time :P

That's because half my fleet are grounded :P . It was something like 3 500 000 000 before I went under.

Ticket income from the chart you showed is approx $1.3M a week, on most of my A321s I earn around $1.5M! Plus the lease costs in the game.


cht7520

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2011, 07:37:56 PM »
I didn't post that. That's:

I think leased price of aircraft is murderer  :'(

This is my Boeing 777-300 weekly income.
Sold tickets    1 135 296 USD
Line maintenance (A+B)    -20 184 USD
Insurance    -108 898 USD
Fuel cost    -297 351 USD
Route fees (1)    -124 304 USD
Weekly leasing cost    -652 797 USD
Total    -68 238 USD

Online [ATA] Sunbao

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  • Posts: 901
    • FmFreaks
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2011, 08:19:19 PM »
129 a-340 and 777 series plane there at high fuel prices just keep losing money. Even at low fuel prices they will on the 6000+ routes loose money.

Offline swiftus27

  • Members
  • Posts: 4395
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2011, 08:31:11 PM »
777s are just bad right now.  All of them.  Don't fly them unless you are flying with zero competition AND you own the plane.   Either that or you will lose money.

Offline mark320

  • Members
  • Posts: 101
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2011, 08:31:23 AM »
I didn't post that. That's:


My apologies!

Well the facts still stand, however no reply regarding lease costs is forthcoming.

regards,


castelino009

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2011, 11:03:58 AM »
so basically we cannot do anything in V1.3, whatever we do we fail.

Big airlines and experienced players are Bankrupting left right centre - I AM CONFUSED  :-\

VJC

GDK

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2011, 11:20:44 AM »
so basically we cannot do anything in V1.3, whatever we do we fail.

Big airlines and experienced players are Bankrupting left right centre - I AM CONFUSED  :-\

VJC

Too fast to make conclusion now.
I'm surviving now after many times of failures with different strategy. But I don't know how far can I go or how long can I survive. :-\

minerva

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2011, 01:31:53 PM »
so basically we cannot do anything in V1.3, whatever we do we fail.

Hardly. Look at the stats and you'll see there are still some very successful operations running.

Still, things definitely have changed, and what worked in the past clearly is not a sufficient guide to what is happening now.  Having just BK'd a 100 a/c airline that looked like it should weather high fuel costs (only 3 fleet types, modern a/c, none more than 8 yrs old, 40% of them new) I share the frustration, but I'm trying to dissect what went wrong and not repeat those mistakes. V1.3 has not entirely leveled the playing field between the super-experienced and newbies, but it has made tried and true tactics less sure, and places more emphasis on slower growth and longer term strategy. It is clearly posing a challenge to those of us who've been here more than a year or so and thought we knew what we were doing. Clearly, v.1.3 has shown there are more things to learn. But surely that is a good thing. Without a challenge, what's the point?

GDK

  • Former member
Re: What went wrong?
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2011, 02:40:40 PM »
I learnt to use A320 family at startup, A321 is best. :P

 

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