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Author Topic: LF problem  (Read 1432 times)

GDK

  • Former member
LF problem
« on: August 14, 2011, 10:35:36 AM »
I'm the only one flying this route, using an A319 (9.4 years old) and an A320-200 (3.3 years old) supplying a total of 282 seats on this 280 pax demand route. RI is now 84 and CI 40. When I opened this route, the LF grows slowly but after some time it started to fluctuate abnormally, most of the time below expected. I update the ticket price every time I see the fuel price change and I always set it to default pricing.

I have more than 1 routes having this problem, directly reducing my income.

Offline SAC

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Re: LF problem
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2011, 11:39:33 AM »
What time are your departures ?   If they are closer than say 45mins then the load will be split between the two flights !   If a route has less than 1000 demand I space departures by 1 hour to be certain LF's will not be reduced.
...it's not over until I say it's over

GDK

  • Former member
Re: LF problem
« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2011, 12:00:54 PM »
What time are your departures ?   If they are closer than say 45mins then the load will be split between the two flights !   If a route has less than 1000 demand I space departures by 1 hour to be certain LF's will not be reduced.


The departure time of these flights are all separated more than 1 hour.
I have around 15 routes having these problem and it is very painful, making me survive but unable to expand normally.

minerva

  • Former member
Re: LF problem
« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2011, 02:29:29 PM »
I've a number of routes with similar fluctuations and low LFs despite having a CI of 90 and RI of 100, no or limited competition, and well spaced departures. I did have some problems with spacing of departures (using the gaps in the schedule of LH aircraft on SH routes is no longer a good idea, I've discovered), but once I fixed those, some of these problematic routes remain.  I haven't yet been able to isolate what has changed or why these one aren't working like the rest.  Unfortunately, I've also made a couple of poor long-term decisions lately and those and my just-getting-by on what I have, means I'm now in a downward spiral.  I like the changes to 1.3 to make growth more challenging, but I'm puzzled by exactly why some otherwise sound routing decisions have proved so problematic.

GDK

  • Former member
Re: LF problem
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2011, 03:45:35 PM »
The LF dropped to as low as 28% and this is ridiculous+unacceptable.
I bet this is one of the reason why so many airlines with big fleet went BK recently.

Offline Sigma

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Re: LF problem
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2011, 04:38:55 PM »
Is it possible that demand dropped?

The interval between flights is dependent on the demand of the route.  If the demand fell slightly to whatever point the system determines a larger interval is needed, your flights may have gone to a point where they are now getting penalized.

Can you try to move one out another hour and see what happens?

Online Sami

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    • AirwaySim - Are you the next Richard Branson?
Re: LF problem
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2011, 05:43:23 PM »
The LF dropped to as low as 28% and this is ridiculous+unacceptable.
I bet this is one of the reason why so many airlines with big fleet went BK recently.

The route has a full competition. There are two airlines sharing the demand, both providing approx. 100% demand worth of seats.

And you are only staring at the load factor number, while you must look at the seats sold figures. Since you are flying with a widely different sized planes there (ATR, Dash-8, A321) so the LF on a larger plane is bound to be lower than with a smaller plane, if they both have roughly the same amount of seats sold.

=> Nothing ridiculous detected.....

minerva

  • Former member
Re: LF problem
« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2011, 06:41:13 PM »
Sami,
sorry, but are you looking at the same flight GDK posted on: KMIA-KSLC?  I can't tell the history of the route, perhaps there have been other airlines on it that have since dropped it, by right now it shows only GDK's airline supplying c. 100% demand using A319 and A320.  If he is having wild fluctuations on that without competition, surely some other variable is at work?


Offline Daveos

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Re: LF problem
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2011, 06:51:55 PM »
The flights are only 55 minutes apart in departure time at 1815 & 1910, so I would assume it was this causing the problem.

EDIT:  With regard to the other flights with a similar problem:

- You also have 2x flights departing Miami - Grand Cayman departing at the same time of 0515, so they won't perform well. 
- Also to Kingston you have departures at 1225 & 1320, which is less than the recommended hour gap.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2011, 06:56:12 PM by Daveos »

GDK

  • Former member
Re: LF problem
« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2011, 09:24:10 PM »
The flights are only 55 minutes apart in departure time at 1815 & 1910, so I would assume it was this causing the problem.

EDIT:  With regard to the other flights with a similar problem:

- You also have 2x flights departing Miami - Grand Cayman departing at the same time of 0515, so they won't perform well.  
- Also to Kingston you have departures at 1225 & 1320, which is less than the recommended hour gap.

I knew the Grand Cayman and Kingston route and I'm going to edit it when I get another ATR. The weird thing is the 2 flight starting at 0515 is still having LF at an average of higher than 50%.

What about my KMIA-MMPR and KMIA-CYWG?

The route has a full competition. There are two airlines sharing the demand, both providing approx. 100% demand worth of seats.

And you are only staring at the load factor number, while you must look at the seats sold figures. Since you are flying with a widely different sized planes there (ATR, Dash-8, A321) so the LF on a larger plane is bound to be lower than with a smaller plane, if they both have roughly the same amount of seats sold.

=> Nothing ridiculous detected.....
I think you are talking about KMIA-MYNN but I have no problem with this route, still making good profit at this level of competition.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2011, 09:30:38 PM by GDK »

Online Sami

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Re: LF problem
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2011, 07:57:34 AM »
True, I mislooked it (opened by LF info only)

Offline Pai

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Re: LF problem
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2011, 11:18:37 AM »
can I borrow this thread to ask a similar question?

How can we get the optimal LF?

One of my route, KDTW - KTYS,
departs 15:15 and back to base at 19:55 everyday, 7x a week.
RI is 100 for a while, ticket price is at default (reset frequently)
The demand is 170 pax/average and I use a leased A320, standard seat config.
No competition

I get a LF about 70-72%, and based my v1.2 knowledge I should expecting 85%+?

Does this because of my relatively low CI (30)?

Thanks
Pai
Lunar Airways

GDK

  • Former member
Re: LF problem
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2011, 01:09:10 PM »
Yea, maybe the CI caused it. I get my highest LF of around 90% with 40CI and 100RI.

 

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