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Author Topic: City based demand  (Read 26454 times)

Offline Kazari

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #60 on: December 08, 2010, 04:23:36 AM »
I just wanted to praise you, Sami. This is a significant development.

Online JumboShrimp

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #61 on: December 17, 2010, 01:39:17 AM »
But I know nothing about what happens in each city (or "square area"..); in other words is the city a famous tourist location, central of large business life .. etc. This data needs to be manually inserted for each country and is a big task, and will require community help eventually.

I don't know how you are mining the population data, for squares (Google?), but I am glad you have that part figured out.

As far as figuring out whether the square contains important business or tourist centers, doing this manually will be very time consuming and subjective.  A good proxy for whether the the area has any kind of attractions is the hotel capacity.  While that (number of hotel rooms per square) may be hard to figure out, is it possible to figure out jus number of hotels - through some Google data mining?  That would be a good starting point, and the raw number of hotel establishments can be scaled by population density of the squre.  A hotel in Manhattan may have 100+ rooms average, while a hotel in a rural are may have 20 room capacity on average...

This step could be sufficient for 99 out of 100 squares, and manual adjustment would be necessary on just ~1 out of 100. squares...

But for now I will continue to make small-scale experiments on how to proceed further. But the first step towards this feature (= base data) is almost done, the next step (= detailed data) and further steps (= forming the demand demand & airports accessing them) are much more complicated than this mere data collection.

That is a complex problem, but it is just a question of developing algorithms and fine tuning them.  The algorithms may be somewhat computantionally intensive...

The way I think it should work is as follows:

For each AB pair of squares:
1 - we know the AB demand from the population / business / tourist data
2 - put all this demand into 4 buckets: AB-Y bucket with certain number of passengers, AB-C, AB-F and AB-cargo buckets.
3 - gather the list of flights (including connecting flights - up to 2 stops) that can take passenger from square A to square B
4 - rate the flights based on all of the current desirability factors.  Plus add new factors such as number of stops, distance from square to the airport  
5 - allocate the passengers to flights.  Do this by splitting AB-Y bucket to AB-Y-flight_sequence_1 bucket, AB-Y-flight_sequence_2 bucket etc. based on overall desirability.  This may result in overbooking flights, which we will deal with later.

Next step is we look at each flight.
- each flight will have a certain number of buckets associated with it.  Add up all the Y seats in those buckets, compare with plane capacity.  If demand is, say 2x the number of available seats, split all buckets between those who are going to be taking the flights (1/2 from each bucket), return the rest to their original bucket.

So this would be iterative, it may need 2, 3 or more iterations.  So the modification of the algorithm would be:
1 - we know the AB remaining demand from the population / business / tourist data that are left to be allocated from previous iteration
2 - we will already have them in the buckets, some returned to these buckets because of lack of capacity
3 - gather the list of flights (including connecting flights - up to 2 stops) that can take passenger from square A to square B that still have capacity left
4 - rate them as above
5 - allocate

Then again, we will look at the flights, their capacity, and the passengers that don't fit will be returned to their original AB buckets.

Each iteration will take less time, since
- there will be fewer and fewer AB squares pairs with passengers that have not been served in previous iterations
- there will be fewer and fewer flights with capacity left

In case you take up this "bucket" concept, it can be used to refine the pricing demand to make it a lot more elastic.  Instead of fixed YCF categories, the demand between any AB squares can be split into more price based buckets.  For example, now, we may have
90 pax Y demand with default price of $100
9 pax C demand with default price of $300
1 pax F demand with default price of $600

Total 100 pax.  Suppose you split it into more bucket, that are more gradual, we can model a scenario where we have, let's say 1 bucket at 100% price of $100, another say 6 buckets above that price going up to $600+ price.  The sum of pax would remain 100, but the passengers would just take the seating based on the prices and what they are willing to pay.  Let's say:
$100 - 50 pax
$120 - 25 pax
$150 - 13 pax
$200 - 5 pax
$300 - 4 pax
$450 - 2 pax
$600 - 1 pax

Total 100 pax

We can add additional price buckets:
$90 - 10
$80 - 15
$70 - 25
$50 - 50

So if an airline were to price their Y seats at $70, $30 below the default price, the demand would go up by 50%, and at price of $50, it would double.

This way, the demand elasticity would be closer to real world, and cutting prices would not just take passengers from the other guy, but more passengers would become available...
« Last Edit: December 17, 2010, 01:44:12 AM by JumboShrimp »

Offline Sami

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #62 on: January 25, 2011, 02:12:08 PM »
When calculating the demand between two squares or "areas" .. what would be the needed infos / factors for every square?

 - population (got it)
 - country GDP (got it)
 - other country related variables (got it)

Manual work is required for assigning the following information for each square:

 - does the square have cities or areas with some of the following:
     - industrial area (increases cargo & business pax)
           - size: small to large

     - holiday area (increases leisure pax)
           - size: small to large
           - seasons: winter/summer/spring/autumn

     - location for business, or capital or other administrative city/region (increases business pax)
           - size/importance: small to large?

     - level of local infra; roads, trains, ..etc. (able to make short journeys land-based?)

     - ...what else that could affect the air traffic demand?


 - or is the square:
     - ocean (no pax/cargo; this is already done)
     - inhabitable area (desert, mountains; no pax/cargo)
« Last Edit: January 25, 2011, 04:09:11 PM by sami »

Online NorgeFly

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #63 on: January 25, 2011, 02:42:01 PM »

     - ...what else that could affect the air traffic demand?


Other transport options... for example, islands usually have relatively high passenger demand for the size of their population as trains and cars are not an option. (Eg. Isle of Man/Channel Isles to UK airports).

Also cultural/language links... such as naturally high demand between Spain and other Hispanic countries, Portugal and Brazil and France and French speaking Canada. Same can be said for Miami having strong links with Hispanic central America.

Online JumboShrimp

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #64 on: January 25, 2011, 04:38:40 PM »
Re: Data collection

I found something for Europe, that if we had this available for the entire world, it would solve all the pax demand issues.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Tourism_statistics_at_regional_level

In particular, this graph: Number of bedplaces in hotels and campsites per 1 000 inhabitants
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Number_of_bedplaces_in_hotels_and_campsites_per_1_000_inhabitants,_by_NUTS_2_regions,_2007.PNG&filetimestamp=20091002110042

would make things really easy.  We have population per square.  Number of hotel beds per 1000 inhabitants would give us number of hotel beds in the square.  Hotel beds are a great proxy (IMO) for overall passenger demand.  I will look around to see if I find something.

We would still need the business / industrial area info to adjust mix of business passengers and cargo. 

Offline RushmoreAir

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #65 on: January 25, 2011, 10:33:24 PM »

     - ...what else that could affect the air traffic demand?




1)  I think you should extend the definition of




     - level of local infra; roads, trains, ..etc. (able to make short journeys land-based?)




The local infrastructure should include airports.  I think that if there are no airports in a given "square", demand should move into neighboring squares.  For instance, Rapid City (Where I live), while only at an official population of 65,000, doesn't have a city over 15,000 for 120 miles, and the nearest airport (other than ours) with jet service is 300 miles away.  Therefore, the serviceable area is roughly a population of 400,000. 

2) I think you should also take security into effect. International demand out of "non-secure" squares (Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, etc.) should be less.


Offline raptorva

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #66 on: January 26, 2011, 02:10:46 AM »
I agree with Rushmores 2 point only I'd expand on that by saying inbound and outbound flights to those areas. Also areas of conflict (if these are implemented events in later versions) should affect the demand to those countries or even stop demand all together if given the right situation (ie Flying from South to North Vietnam should be impossible during the war years for obvious reasons)

Offline TFC1

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #67 on: January 26, 2011, 08:45:23 AM »
   
- ...what else that could affect the air traffic demand?
    

Geographical size of the country in question combined with the availability of other modes of transportation. As an example, Norway has a high percentage of air travelers compared to it's population due to the distances involved when traveling. In addition, roads and railways are not a satisfactory travel option, which leads people to the airports for longer journeys. Australia is another example, with huge distances involved, meaning air travel is the obvious choice unless one has days to move between cities.

On a cargo-related issue, transport of fresh foodstuffs and agricultural products is big business. Salmon from Norway to the US and Asia and flowers from Africa to Europe.

And as already pointed out, ethnic travel demand is a very large factor indeed affecting demand.

Online NorgeFly

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #68 on: January 26, 2011, 01:16:47 PM »
Geographical size of the country in question combined with the availability of other modes of transportation. As an example, Norway has a high percentage of air travelers compared to it's population due to the distances involved when traveling. In addition, roads and railways are not a satisfactory travel option, which leads people to the airports for longer journeys. Australia is another example, with huge distances involved, meaning air travel is the obvious choice unless one has days to move between cities.

On a cargo-related issue, transport of fresh foodstuffs and agricultural products is big business. Salmon from Norway to the US and Asia and flowers from Africa to Europe.

And as already pointed out, ethnic travel demand is a very large factor indeed affecting demand.

I agree. Norway has a much smaller population than the UK for example, but domestic air travel in Norway is much higher and has some of the busiest air routes in the world. Not all of them are long distances by air (eg. Oslo to Bergen) but the geography in between makes it almost impossible to travel quickly by road or rail.

Offline alexgv1

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #69 on: January 26, 2011, 01:30:28 PM »
I agree. Norway has a much smaller population than the UK for example, but domestic air travel in Norway is much higher and has some of the busiest air routes in the world. Not all of them are long distances by air (eg. Oslo to Bergen) but the geography in between makes it almost impossible to travel quickly by road or rail.


Yeah domestic air travel in the UK mainland is virtually non existant except flights from London to the North and Scotland. I guess it's because it's such a small country and the railways and motorways are good.
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Offline swiftus27

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #70 on: January 26, 2011, 01:56:46 PM »
Yeah domestic air travel in the UK mainland is virtually non existant except flights from London to the North and Scotland. I guess it's because it's such a small country and the railways and motorways are good.

The island if Britain is the size of Kansas... Americans will understand the scope. 

Offline JonesyUK

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #71 on: January 26, 2011, 06:07:29 PM »
the railways and motorways are good.


I was going to ask if you'd ever been to Britain, then realised you live here  :o

 ;)

Offline alexgv1

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #72 on: January 26, 2011, 06:20:55 PM »


I was going to ask if you'd ever been to Britain, then realised you live here  :o

 ;)

Well okay I've commuted by rail for 6 years previously and yes I have no end of groans and moans about the service, the delays. Also the traffic jams driving and the idiots on the road. So yes I know what you're saying.

But you can get a high speed rail service to most major cities in the country, and now even to the European capitols of the nearby countries. So maybe the demand for say LHR to CDG, AMS, BRU may be reduced in the future if this is factored into it.

Compared to most countries the transport is good in the UK, say compared to a train journey in the USA (which I have been on) or even driving state to state (which can take a whole day or more). So that is why domestic demand flying in the Americas is so high compared to here. Most of our passengers are just business flyers going to a city for a few days or holiday makers. If you look at South America it is quicker to fly over the jungle than drive or ride through it.

I actually learnt the difference between US and EU markets for flying in the current game world I'm playing. The distances is huge. An average route is 1000NM and in Europe that would take you from one side of the other. I mean there are people in USA that commute from coast to coast to work, for example going from San Francisco to work in Charlotte.
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Offline raptorva

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #73 on: January 27, 2011, 12:16:12 AM »
likewise with air travel here in Australia. The distances are so vast that most prefer to fly rather than drive, especially considering the infrastructure here is obsolete and crumbling under existing demand. Hence why Melbourne-Sydney and Melbourne-Brisbane are among the busiest routes in the world.

Offline Maarten Otto

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #74 on: January 29, 2011, 11:41:05 AM »
As for Holland, Schiphol Airport (EHAM) has a rail service to EVERY corner of the country. All are operated at 2tph (trains per hour) or more. There are 9 tph between Schiphol Airport and Amsterdam Centraal alone. And more then 12 tph between Schiphol Airport and Amsterdam South which is the business district at just 5 minutes train journey from the airport.

Klcosta

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #75 on: June 14, 2011, 05:34:30 PM »
I don't see how this can work without connecting passenger, but if you included them this would be really cool.

Offline BobTheCactus

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #76 on: June 14, 2011, 07:11:56 PM »
I don't see how this can work without connecting passenger, but if you included them this would be really cool.

What?

Sure connecting pax could greatly enhance this feature, but even by itself, it is a hugely better than our current system.
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Offline LemonButt

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #77 on: June 15, 2011, 05:57:01 PM »
What?

Sure connecting pax could greatly enhance this feature, but even by itself, it is a hugely better than our current system.

I'm not sure what/how he was referencing connecting pax, but it is key in my opinion.  If I were to open up a hub at some small base like Sioux Falls, SD and flew to/from both JFK and LAX, I should be able to compete for pax on the JFK-LAX flight even though I'm not based there.  When you goto expedia etc you'll see options for connecting at different prices and it's usually MUCH cheaper to connect 1x than fly direct--especially international flights.  Atlanta isn't the biggest city is the world, but it has the biggest airport in the world thanks to connecting passengers.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #78 on: June 15, 2011, 07:14:00 PM »
Dynamic city based demand + connecting pax = ftw :)

Klcosta

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Re: City based demand
« Reply #79 on: June 22, 2011, 03:09:18 PM »
What?

Sure connecting pax could greatly enhance this feature, but even by itself, it is a hugely better than our current system.

You can't make it work without connecting passenger because the number of passengers between hubs like Miami, Paris, Singapur... will decrease and you will not have the option of making up for it with connecting passenger making the number of plausible flights a lot lesser. I don't know if I explained myself so let me give an example:

In real life you have x demand from Valencia, Spain to New York, Boston, San Francisco, Miami... but the demand between either of these is not high enough to create a direct flight. In real life the solution is to create connecting passenger and channel these through a hub. In the current AWS model all of those passengers simply boost the demand between that hub and the final destination. So all the passangers attempting to fly from Valencia to NY, Boston... all apear on the Madrid-NY, Boston... flight or the Paris-NY, Boston...flights. This is just one airport, to Valencia you need to add all the passengers from other small airports attempting to do a long journey that in the real world is done through a hub.With this new system those passengers will no longer appear in the longer flight Madrid-NY or Paris-NY but now appear in the Valencia-NY so now the flight between Madrid-NY has lost a lot of its prior potential, that could be made up with connecting flights but without them you just have a much smaller number of passenger hoping to fly between the two major cities.

I hope I got my point across

 

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