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Author Topic: Strange LFs in 1.3  (Read 1982 times)

Offline JumboShrimp

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Strange LFs in 1.3
« on: July 11, 2011, 06:59:35 PM »
I am seeing very strange (very low) LFs under 1.3, where there I should not be seeing them (based on experience from previous games).

Example:

A route where I am the only airline flying:
Supply: 10% of the demand (other 90% demand not met)
Time of day: Great
Aircraft: Good (79% condition)
Seaging: Standard
Ticket Price: Standard
RI: 25
CI: 15.4
LFs:
1: 37 45
2: 49 47
3: 43 44
4: 55 44
5: 50 36
6: 29 65
7: 67 24

Numbers are Day of week, Trip there, Return trip.

Now, if any of the parameters, or just any one single paramaters for the flight was really bad, I could argue that that single parameter may be the cause of bad LFs.  But everything is fine as far as I can tell.

Offline schro

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2011, 07:07:37 PM »
How many times per day?

If more than one, please list times?

What is the total demand of the route?

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2011, 07:11:29 PM »
How many times per day?

If more than one, please list times?

What is the total demand of the route?

1x per day

19:10 - 21:45 - Going there
22:50 - 05:00 - Return

Ok the return may be close to the limits, but the trip there is perfect, as far as I can tell, and it still has a LF as low as 29 on one of the days...

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2011, 07:12:22 PM »
I am getting similar LFs as well.

Online cutchie

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2011, 07:14:45 PM »
Me too, and mine are getting slightly worse, with the average starting to slide into the high 40s%.

Offline Sami

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2011, 07:20:08 PM »
RI: 25
CI: 15.4

Answers are these. Mainly RI.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2011, 07:27:48 PM »
Answers are these. Mainly RI.

Yeah, RI has a huge impact, but given that it is 1/4 of the way there, and that the demand is 10x of supply, I would expect the LF to be in high 60s / low 70s.  The average of the numbers above is 47% and 43% for the return trip

Monk Xion

  • Former member
Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2011, 07:30:31 PM »
Yeah, RI has a huge impact, but given that it is 1/4 of the way there, and that the demand is 10x of supply, I would expect the LF to be in high 60s / low 70s.  The average of the numbers above is 47% and 43% for the return trip

I got 84% LF on my ATL route with 14 RI.... but I am the only one flying it also

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2011, 07:34:42 PM »
I got 84% LF on my ATL route with 14 RI.... but I am the only one flying it also

That's something I would (optimistically) expect as well.  Getting 1/2 of that (LFs in 40s) is what prompted me to post.

BTW, what is the length of you flights where you are seeing the 84% LF (in nautical miles)?

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2011, 07:38:32 PM »
One more piece of info:  My ticket price was $220 when I created the route.  Now, the default price is $219 (went down a $1).  I wonder if that's what caused the huge LF drop....

Monk Xion

  • Former member
Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2011, 07:39:45 PM »
That's something I would (optimistically) expect as well.  Getting 1/2 of that (LFs in 40s) is what prompted me to post.

BTW, what is the length of you flights where you are seeing the 84% LF (in nautical miles)?

474nm. 4x daily too. I got 21% LF on the twice as long JFK route (800nm) w/ low RI. Which suprised me because I was the only airline flying it and it had a huge amount of demand. But I kinda expected low LF b/c of RI

Btw: my ticket prices are 3% below the default price

DenisG

  • Former member
Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2011, 07:54:54 PM »
Yes, these LF fluctuations have also been observed in beta testing. It gets better, as CI RI rises.

Cheers,
Denis
« Last Edit: July 11, 2011, 09:00:13 PM by DenisG »

Offline swiftus27

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2011, 08:09:03 PM »
Yes, these LF fluctuations have also been observed in beta testing. It gets better, as CI rises.

Cheers,
Denis

sami said above that RI has more to do with this.

Offline Sigma

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2011, 11:46:09 PM »
I noticed HUGE differences in the effect RI had during the beta.  I also notice overall far more variation than we saw previously, with it being very common to have 10, even 20%, variation throughout the week.  You would think the normal demand curve would model this variation, but it does seem there's more than in the past.  I didn't have long enough time to test different variables to determine if the variance decreased appreciably as RI increased.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2011, 12:07:51 AM »
I noticed HUGE differences in the effect RI had during the beta.  I also notice overall far more variation than we saw previously, with it being very common to have 10, even 20%, variation throughout the week.  You would think the normal demand curve would model this variation, but it does seem there's more than in the past.  I didn't have long enough time to test different variables to determine if the variance decreased appreciably as RI increased.

I am seeing huge swings.  More than 20%.  One example I just came across is 74%, 24%, 59%, same day, last 3 weeks, no changes in competition.  74% is the oldest one (unfortunately).

I will be monitoring this as RI and CI rise.  Higher average LFs should be a given, once RI and CI rise, and hopefully, the volatility will decrease...

GDK

  • Former member
Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2011, 12:22:33 AM »
I noticed that the LF fluctuation is quiet big within 30%-75% for the past few days but now my minimum LF is 40% when all my RI grows beyond 20.

Monk Xion

  • Former member
Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2011, 12:32:56 AM »
I noticed that the LF fluctuation is quiet big within 30%-75% for the past few days but now my minimum LF is 40% when all my RI grows beyond 20.

Weird... idk im only making 200k with and A321 and A319. I think i should up the prices a lil bit...

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2011, 12:39:24 AM »
I am wondering if there is some kind of anomaly at play here.  In the past, when I jumped on a route with a single 1x / day flight, where demand was 3x, 5x, or even 10x what I was supplying, I would right away get LFs in 60s or 70s, with RI of zero.

Now, some of my RIs is 32, my CI is equal to the leaders of the game, and my LFs are in toillet, 54% now overall, I am near the bottom of all players.

Most affected are routes > 1000nm that are near 40% flying with no competition...
My routes < 1000nm have higher LFs > 60%, some of them flying against competition....

Monk Xion

  • Former member
Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2011, 12:49:51 AM »
I am wondering if there is some kind of anomaly at play here.  In the past, when I jumped on a route with a single 1x / day flight, where demand was 3x, 5x, or even 10x what I was supplying, I would right away get LFs in 60s or 70s, with RI of zero.

Now, some of my RIs is 32, my CI is equal to the leaders of the game, and my LFs are in toillet, 54% now overall, I am near the bottom of all players.

Most affected are routes > 1000nm that are near 40% flying with no competition...
My routes < 1000nm have higher LFs > 60%, some of them flying against competition....

+1. In the beta I was getting 60%+ LF out of the box

Offline liklik3

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Re: Strange LFs in 1.3
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2011, 01:11:26 AM »
Having the same problem flying a A-319 with 6 people onboard is not healthy :(

 

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