This is getting curioser and curioser:
One of my aircraft that has a turnaround probability of delay of ~1% just got cancelled, not delayed, cancelled for "Flight was canceled / Scheduling (too short turn-arounds) "
I just checked the flight immediately prior to the cancelled flight, and it left from its destination (back to the HQ) on time, with 0 min delay. What would be a good explanation for this?
I am guessing that the flight can leave with some delay - 15min or even more. I see some flight still leave with 42 min delay (due to weather). The aircraft in question is the type with 40 min turnaroud. The delay probability, I am sure, uses some statistical distribution. So when it gets to ~1% at 70 min, going further out, the probability of delay become exceedingly rare. So I have 40min normal turnaround (at 25% probability)+ 30min extra (at 1% probability) + 40 min permissible delay. What is that probabiity, 1 in a million? Did I just win a lottery?