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Author Topic: 00:00 - 05:00 flights  (Read 1530 times)

Offline Andriy

  • Members
  • Posts: 226
00:00 - 05:00 flights
« on: July 01, 2010, 06:07:34 AM »
Need help with the night flights as thats the only slots left at my airport.
The "common knowledge" is that you get a lower RI and lower pax on the flights departing and arriving between midnight and 5am, however I wonder if someone has either info or experience on details:

1) Does it impact you when your flight is the only flight available? I could understand that if there is a choice of 2am and 10am flight, passenger would choose 10am, but what if he has no choice? Why would passenger load go down? - you need to fly and there is only one flight available...
2) Does it equally impact domestic, international and intercontinental flights? The logic would be that the longer you fly, the less you care... if you get to fly 15 hours, you less picky that your flight arrives at 4am...
3) Regional specifics: in some places, night is actually the busiest time - in Middle East (like Dubai, etc) for example there is lots of flights coming and leavinigg in the middle of the night and it does not seem to bother anyone. I think it should be considered


Offline Sigma

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  • Posts: 1920
Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2010, 06:47:32 AM »
Quote
1) Does it impact you when your flight is the only flight available? I could understand that if there is a choice of 2am and 10am flight, passenger would choose 10am, but what if he has no choice? Why would passenger load go down? - you need to fly and there is only one flight available...
It doesn't really matter if your red-eye is the only flight available.  The demand model isn't quite that smart.  Besides, if the demand is 200, that's "200" if if you're flying at the price and time that they want to fly at -- it's not literally 200 people lined up at the airport waiting to go no matter the time or price.  It's assumed if your timing or pricing isn't good enough, they simply choose not to go or make alternate arrangements.

It can still be quite profitable though with a high CI (70+) and once your RI gets up there, so there's no reason to avoid it if there's no other options.


Quote
2) Does it equally impact domestic, international and intercontinental flights? The logic would be that the longer you fly, the less you care... if you get to fly 15 hours, you less picky that your flight arrives at 4am...

The longer the flight, the less they care.  Domestic or International isn't of concern, it comes down to flight length that determines their tolerance to the flight times.  But they seem much more tolerant of poor arrival times than poor departure times.  They're okay with arriving someplace at 3am after 12hrs, they're not as keen to take-off at 3am for a 12hr flight.

Quote
3) Regional specifics: in some places, night is actually the busiest time - in Middle East (like Dubai, etc) for example there is lots of flights coming and leavinigg in the middle of the night and it does not seem to bother anyone. I think it should be considered

That's one of those "nice to have" things that's really pretty hard to code.  There's always a certain willingness for a percentage of the population to fly at "bad" times; it's difficult to really draw a mathematical model around perceived cultural differences on opinions of those.  We can't even get seasonality of demand to tourist destinations -- something far more objective and more important -- trying to get regional demand variations is quite a bit more difficult to do.

Offline PH1517

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Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2010, 11:16:29 PM »
I have a different opinion on that.
LFs are affected by departure and arrival times, no matter what.  So even if you have a very high CI, a RI at 100, and you have the only flight leaving at 2am (and let say arriving at 6am) and you re going at or below demand on the route, your LF will be lower (about 70%LF) than if you have an flight with 'normal' times (about 95-100% LF).  So you can go lower on fare to get a higher LF and you can still be profitable.
I have plenty of flights like that and everyone of them have a lower LF.  The ones that are less affected by that are intl longhauls but as long as my arrival time is good.
PH1517

Offline Sigma

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  • Posts: 1920
Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2010, 01:24:10 AM »
Perhaps I wasn't clear, but you said exactly the same thing I did (or meant), PH1517.

Only flight or not, a flight at 2am is going to be less full than if it were at 2pm.

GDK

  • Former member
Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2010, 02:42:15 PM »
Midnight flight at Dubai is not due to passenger's preference or any cultural difference. It is because of the extreme temperature during day time that make the airfield not suitable for any take-off and landing.

Sandager

  • Former member
Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2010, 10:29:12 AM »
Midnight flight at Dubai is not due to passenger's preference or any cultural difference. It is because of the extreme temperature during day time that make the airfield not suitable for any take-off and landing.

 Forgive me but take a look at  DXB website. there are plenty of aircrafts taking off and landing during the day. Sure it is a bit how here in the Gulf during the day. The facts is however that the temperature doesn't change very much from night to day.
 Whereas the temperature does indeed have an influence on the A/C performance, no doubt, I think the reason for the many nightdepartures from DXB,AUH,DOH is more because of connections and optimizing the usage of the aircrafts

kone_alta

  • Former member
Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2010, 03:48:45 PM »
My experience are as follows:
1) If the plane departs between 0000-0100, load factor wont be affected
2) If the plane arrives between 0000-0500 the load factor will be affected by, let's say, 20%, even it is a long haul route like FAJS/RJBB
3) If the plane departs between 0100-0500, the load factor will have ~10-15% penalty even the arrival time is ok(say 0600am)

my conclusionis avoid your routes departing at 0100-0500 and arriving at 0000-0500  ::)

forsberc

  • Former member
Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2010, 08:58:45 AM »
My experience with the Midnight flights is that they provide money, not as much money granted, but money none-the-less. I personally feel that even if the airplane is flying with 50% LF's it will still turn at least a 10k profit/ day on the route. (This is the lowest that I have seen. I have seen upwards of 30-40k as well.) Multiplied out to 7 days a week, this will definitely help increase revenue for the aircraft. That being said, I try to avoid it at all costs. But if I have a window of time between those periods, and I have a route that will work inside of that time window, I will probably lean towards it. An airplane on the ground doesnt make more money than a 50% full airplane in the air.

NOTE: I only have experience with flights less than ~2000 nm. I am not sure how this philosophy would work with longer flights.

Just my 2 cents.

dancingcol

  • Former member
Re: 00:00 - 05:00 flights
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2010, 04:27:58 PM »
the way I've got round this in previous game worlds is to have some aircraft scheduled for a 7-9am departure. that way you can then put in a short flight that will leave as close to midnight as possible, have an extended turnaround so you can get the departure 5am or after. basically night stopping the aircraft.

but obviously this will only work if you have a good number of routes sub 300nm...

 

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