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Author Topic: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....  (Read 1343 times)

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« on: June 16, 2010, 08:43:04 PM »
Hello all,

Unfortunately I cannot provide a picture right now, but give me some time and I will edit this post or make another post with that picture. Anyhow - down to business. I have a route between Nairobi, Kenya and Madrid, Spain in Air Travel Boom. I started this service about a week ago (real time), and now a competitor in Madrid has started flying the route....with a B777-300. :o I do not provide a daily service (hence why I know he's oversupplying), which clearly shows how much seats the other airline, Souto Airways Ltd, is providing. In the picture (soon to be) below, you can see VERY clearly how much I provide, and if you look on Saturday, it shows how much he supplies. The demand is around 200 pax/day, and he provides 418. that is clearly breaking the 200% rule.... and, including my daily (minus Saturday) flight, there is a supply of over 650 pax/day. I am under the 200% rule by providing 242 seats, which is not against the rule from what I understand. So, if you could take a look and see what I mean - greatly appreciated.

Cheers,
ICEcold

Vision Airways
Nairobi, Kenya

losgatitospeligrosos

  • Former member
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2010, 10:18:04 PM »
418 = ((200* (+/- 10%)) x 200%)

I think he's fine. That 200 could be 220 or 180 or something like that. Remember demand figures aren't exact.

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2010, 10:27:18 PM »
I know very well that they aren't exact. that's why i said ~200/day. the average is 200 (between 220 and 180 which is the highest and lowest I've seen it go) so that there was no confusion. if you use the average (which is usually what the demand ends up being) he's over by 18 seats. ;) he could be on certain days, but on others he's way over the 200% rule. ;)

Offline NorgeFly

  • Members
  • Posts: 3651
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2010, 10:29:48 PM »
I just looked at the route and checked demand 5 times (as it varies) and I got a range of 220 per day to 250 per day... so with 418 seats I'd say he is safely within the 200% max limit.



Still, can't be a very profitable route for him, especially with the competition. It would be far more sensible of him to run the route with a smaller aircraft (757/767) rather than 777-300! Stick at it, chances are you will come out better than him!
« Last Edit: June 16, 2010, 10:35:52 PM by NorgeFly »

Offline Sigma

  • Members
  • Posts: 1920
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2010, 11:04:29 PM »
Looks alright to me.

You've also got to look at the return route, as often times that's a little bit higher, which can affect things as well.

Regardless, I doubt sami's gonna be rushing to issue a warning for someone being a little over.  He's not going to make someone go get a whole new model of plane because the one they use puts them a handful of seats over the limit.  The intent and spirit of the rule is to stop flooding routes, not make people fly the exact model of aircraft necessary to reach precisely 200%.

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2010, 11:13:57 PM »
true true. :) NorgeFly i already have him because i have a bigger market share on the route despite him having a larger aircraft. :laugh: I think what Nick (not you Seattle) was right about you-know-what. ;D

Cheers,
ICEcold

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2010, 10:43:38 PM »
ok. this one I KNOW is oversupplying..... NBO-ADD in ATB. he supplies 469 seats on that route, and the demand is only 150. that's over 300%. again, it'll take me time to get the pic uploaded, but I will if no one beats me to it. ;) check it out sami. airline is "JAFFER LINES786" and is run by "Kaz Star". ;)

Cheers,
ICEcold

Offline Seattle

  • Members
  • Posts: 2791
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2010, 12:32:27 AM »
I think he is probably safe too. If it were over 500, that would be too far, but the 200% rule is not always strict.
Founder of the Star Alliance!

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2010, 05:01:19 AM »
actually, i don't really care about that one. i don't even fly on it and he's competing directly against 717s and RJ70s....he's a gonner. ;)

Cheers,
ICEcold

Offline ukatlantic

  • Members
  • Posts: 1780
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2010, 05:48:01 PM »
Well personally the 200% rule should be strictly enforced, otherwise you just get people 'playing the game' with regards to the 200% the rule and nothing is done. If its over 200% regardless by how much then that airline should be told to remove the aircraft or replace it with a more efficient a/c type. - Just my 10 cents worth here  ;)

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
Re: i think this classifies as oversupplying a route.....
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2010, 07:40:19 PM »
well put. although I should mention that the same guy now flies the Nairobi- Mombasa route with an A310 and A300....... that's 400% right there. :laugh:

Cheers,
ICEcold

ps- let this route go. I want to let him burn because he's flying the wrong aircraft on the wrong routes. ;D

 

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