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Author Topic: load factor dropped dramatically  (Read 8916 times)

Online Sami

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2010, 10:13:02 AM »
On what routes you have seen the most changes? up or down..  Flying alone, or competition (how much)? How many routes a day? What are the ticket prices, and CI/RI etc..etc..

jest

  • Former member
Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2010, 10:33:17 AM »
On what routes you have seen the most changes? up or down..  Flying alone, or competition (how much)? How many routes a day? What are the ticket prices, and CI/RI etc..etc..

Sami, i said this twice on this thread but i will say it again. CI 80%, RI 100%, brand new planes with standard config, 20% discount on recommended prices, no competition on the routes involved, only meeting the demand on those routes. Before changes, LF was around 85% to 90% which i consider adequate for the conditions stated above. After the changes LF dropped to 65% to 70%.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2010, 11:50:59 AM »
On what routes you have seen the most changes?

All routes.

Auckland - (Cairns Technical Stop) - Hong Kong Kai Tak => LF 95% to LF 40%, prices -10% at the moment of big LF drop, no competition, 10 flights a week (every day, 3 days two times, demand is much higher than I offer seats in all three classes), RI 100


Auckland - (Kona Technical Stop) - New York JFK => LF 85% to LF 35%, prices -15% at the moment of the drop, no competition, 3 flights a week, demand is nearly 2x than what I offer, RI ~50


Auckland - (Tahiti Faa'a Technical Stop) - Los Angeles Int. => LF 90% to LF 35%, prices -15% at the moment of the drop, no competition, 8 flights a week (without Sunday), demand is four to five times than what I offer.


The schedule filler routes went down, too (Auckland - Melbourne for example), also the demand there is 2-4 times higher than what I (and small competitor) offers.


In fact, all of my routes are affected.





Quote
up or down..  Flying alone, or competition (how much)? How many routes a day? What are the ticket prices, and CI/RI etc..etc..

All LF went extremly down, no doubt if there is competition or not. Prices were low because it is a new airline, also CI (42 at this time) and RI are on a smaller level.


My aircrafts are configured 3/20/138, 6/25/125 and 6/30/114, so I'm not using "tactics" like full C/F and comparing to some actual configurations it seems realistic to me.

Aircraft are <17 years old (12, 13, 14, 15, 16 years) and in good condition (>90%). Staff is well payed and there is no need for more staff.

Flight puncutality is around 97% and cancellations are very low (0% at the moment, but sometimes there are one or two cancellations a week).

My turn-around-times are always at 1% delay (between the flights you can choose in the drop down menu and also between two different flight numbers).




Offline type45

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2010, 12:16:46 PM »
my LF return to normal now without doing anything ;) but some of my friends still suffer from this problem

pcroarkin

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #24 on: May 01, 2010, 03:49:41 PM »
My LF dropped a couple of days ago and I was trying to figure out what happened.  Most my routes have less seats than PAX demand and I've discounted 8 to 25%.  About 3 days ago my LF was 85%Y, 70%C, 50%F (not great) but now its 70%Y, 65%C, and 38%F.  Most of my pax are Y so this is a unbearable hit. 

se.basti.an

  • Former member
Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #25 on: May 01, 2010, 04:18:05 PM »
Today...

...i musst close my airline, because the sudden drops in passenger numbers, I can not compensate for now! :-(

Talentz

  • Former member
Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #26 on: May 01, 2010, 05:43:49 PM »
After looking at a few routes out of Jakarta, I'm thinking that the latest change effected pax demand on some routes.

2 days ago, Jakarta-Dubai was showing 80 pax daily demand. Now, it shows 300+ daily demand. I thought it might be because my staff is still new until I saw Jakarta-Tokyo Haneda. It showed zero out, as it should a few days ago.. now it shows 150 pax daily...

Perhaps this is the problem. Change in route demand?


Everyone who says there LF dropped, looked into your route demand and see if its lower then before and report back here.



Talentz
« Last Edit: May 01, 2010, 05:46:44 PM by Talentz »

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #27 on: May 01, 2010, 06:20:12 PM »
Everyone who says there LF dropped, looked into your route demand and see if its lower then before and report back here.

Maybe the demand from Auckland to NY JFK is lower now, but I don't know exactly and it's still more demand than I offer seats. Demand on the other routes is the same as before.

Online Sami

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #28 on: May 01, 2010, 06:47:20 PM »
Yes, it shouldn't be about demand figures since I haven't touched those.

But what's strange is that the test server gives me a bit different results than what you have said to seen. I will make additional test runs later today, but true - a case with company image >70 and route image >90 and flt.times in the daytime, you should be able to catch the full estimated demand. But can't comment other than that without properly testing it.

Offline CUR$E - God of AirwaySim

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #29 on: May 01, 2010, 06:50:31 PM »
Don't know if this helps you, but you can test things out with my airline in MT#2, too. It's going to bankrupt these days, so feel free :P

wtdawg

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #30 on: May 01, 2010, 06:57:36 PM »
Today...

...i musst close my airline, because the sudden drops in passenger numbers, I can not compensate for now! :-(
Ditto.  I'm going down in flames.  I didn't know what was happening, kept lowering my fares until they were probably 40% below market.  That still didn't work, so I borrowed all the money I could to try to keep some cash going.. closed routes and airports.  As a last resort I bought a boatload of advertising.  I'm starting to see some cash come in, but there's no way to recover it appears.  Hours and hours and hours of work shot to hell.  I've also seen a bunch of bankruptcies from other airlines, now I have a bankruptcy warning that I will go under in just a couple of days. 

Very discouraging.

Offline Sigma

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2010, 07:01:31 PM »
Definitely picked the single worse time in the course of a game to make a change like this, that's for sure.  At this point people are rushing to acquire more planes to stay ahead of their growing lease expenses and their cash tends to be non-existent as every dollar goes into buying a new plane as soon as possible.  Even a small change would bankrupt a lot of people.

For whatever reason though I seem to have come through unscathed and my LF, if anything, have gone up a bit.

Online Sami

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #32 on: May 01, 2010, 07:03:32 PM »
Well, this was a fix that needed to be done, since some guys had routes with identical parameters and other had 70% pax and other 5% ... (and at the same time noticed an error in the "price sensitivity" formula too)
« Last Edit: May 01, 2010, 07:05:48 PM by sami »

wtdawg

  • Former member
Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2010, 07:12:08 PM »
Well, this was a fix that needed to be done, since some guys had routes with identical parameters and other had 70% pax and other 5% ... (and at the same time noticed an error in the "price sensitivity" formula too)

How about tweaking the level where you're forced into bankurptcy... or allowing additional loans?  Throw us a bone here and give us some time to work out of this mess.

Online Sami

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #34 on: May 01, 2010, 07:19:27 PM »
For airlines having had troubles over this (meaning - long term problems, exclude the 3-day dip yesterday) please PM me with details of your airline: Airline ID number (eg. 1234), is it still running, present CI and RI on affected routes, list of routes affected (generally), and symptoms seen. I will then decide case-by-case on what is the appropriate action (as in all cases airline "death" may not be caused by this, but in some cases may have just "pushed over the edge").

Actual cause is still under investigation.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2010, 07:22:00 PM by sami »

Offline highways1

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #35 on: May 01, 2010, 07:33:37 PM »
Sami did you just tinker with the load factors? My normal Y LF in ATB is around 65% and it just spiked to 94%. Not that I'm complaining but I don't think it was due to anything I did. My CI is only 18 as it is early in the game.

Offline Sigma

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #36 on: May 01, 2010, 07:35:01 PM »
Sami did you just tinker with the load factors? My normal Y LF in ATB is around 65% and it just spiked to 94%. Not that I'm complaining but I don't think it was due to anything I did. My CI is only 18 as it is early in the game.

I was about to say the exact same thing.

I just started an airline 6 game-days ago in ATB.  The first 4 days were ~65% as expected.  Now, as of the new week, they're 95%.  As a brand-new airline.  It's like how AWS was a couple versions ago.

Offline NorgeFly

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #37 on: May 01, 2010, 07:45:00 PM »
Me too  ;D

Offline Sigma

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #38 on: May 01, 2010, 08:02:03 PM »
Oh well, looks like it just lasted 2 days.  Back to normal now.

Offline Southsky

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Re: load factor dropped dramatically
« Reply #39 on: May 01, 2010, 08:37:57 PM »
My average LF is quite parabolic with about a weekly cycle since the changes. Nothing "life" threatening but interesting to say the least.

 

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