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Author Topic: Wierd Load Factors  (Read 1053 times)

Offline JJP

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Wierd Load Factors
« on: August 20, 2009, 01:50:55 AM »
My average load factor has been slowly (and, thus, number of passengers transported) increasing, but now it has all of a sudden decreased.  Before you ask, you should know the following:

(1) No new competition on my routes.
(2) I have not increased the frequency of flights on my routes.
(3) I have not increased prices
(4) My company image has been steadily increasing
(5) My route image has been steadily increasing
(6) I have had only 1 flight cancellation (weather) in the last week. That's a drop of 90 passengers (there and back) out of 6300 transported.

Why did my number of passengers drop from a high of 7,068 in week 25 to only 6300 in week 26?

I've never experienced this without any outside influence. Does anyone have an explanation?

Offline Sigma

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Re: Wierd Load Factors
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2009, 05:37:50 AM »
If it's just one week, it's common.

It's often apparent on the pax graphs of many airlines.  There will be a large drop in pax, 10% isn't uncommon at all, then an immediate spike and hold for 3 weeks, then a drop, then a spike and hold for 3 weeks, and so on.  Every 4th week is low.

My guess is that it's simply B-Checks coming do.   It just happens to work out that all (or a large chunk) of their B-Checks occur on the same week.  If you get lucky and they're all spread out perfectly evenly, you never notice, but it usually happens that at least one week of the month is heavier on them than other weeks and you see a traffic dip.

Now I didn't think that checks affected your LF, and your LF was calculated only on flown routes.  So if the case is your actual LF numbers, I don't think it's your B-Checks.  But if you're looking at total pax, fluctuations aren't uncommon at all.  Even fluctuations in LF aren't uncommon -- the game seems to have a sort of economic cycle that's 3-5 weeks long.  I can tell by my income on a Monday whether it's gonna be a "good" or "bad" week, as the income that posts for that day sets the tone for the rest of the week and can it vary as much as 5-10%.

Offline Sami

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Re: Wierd Load Factors
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2009, 09:50:48 AM »
You are confusing terms and things here ...  You are talking about load factors first and then referring to the number of transported passengers, which are not related in that way.

And like Sigma said the B checks are performed every 4th week and that essentially drops out one flying day per each aircraft, so there you have it.

Offline JJP

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Re: Wierd Load Factors
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2009, 10:05:18 AM »
Thanks, Sigma, that was a good explanation.

Sami, you should hire Sigma as your Public Relations Ambassador.   ;D
« Last Edit: August 20, 2009, 10:33:32 AM by JJP »


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